With a Quarter of the Season Done, Where Does Liverpool Stand?

By: Noel | October 24th, 2011
   
kenny dalglish pondering

With a quarter of the Premier League season wrapped up, the unavoidable reality is that Liverpool hasn’t performed up to the level that many fans had hoped they would. They haven’t seemed especially poor perhaps, but clearly they haven’t hit the sorts of highs they did in the second half of 2010-11 that had fans talking about the squad being a few tweaks away from legitimate contenders after finishing out the season with the third best record—and very nearly the second best up until stumbling through their final two matches—in the league under Kenny Dalglish.

But if that’s an unavoidable truth, so too is that they haven’t played nearly as poorly as they did in the first half of the 2010-11 season under Roy Hodgson. Still, given that Hodgson’s side had a negative goal differential to go along with a 35% win rate and on form was stuck in twelfth, that might not be setting the bar very high. More interesting is looking at Liverpool over the past three seasons (and managers) and seeing just where the current squad stacks up against recent Liverpool teams in key statistical categories.

First the pretty pictures, then a few observations to go along with them:

liverpool pass stats
liverpool shot tackle stats
liverpool goals for against
liverpool win form points chart graph

First, while it’s no surprise that the Points per Game, Win Percentage, and Finish/Form graphs look similar, it’s interesting in the way that each appears a magnification of the previous, as each extra tenth of the point per match over the season results in a significant boost in final position.

Meanwhile, shots and tackles don’t always have an obvious correlation when it comes to success in the table, though that Roy Hodgson’s time with the club saw both the second lowest number of attempted tackles (pipping Kenny Dalglish’s current side by a sixth of a tackle) along with the fewest shots per game, fewest passes, and lowest point return speaks to his passive approach and—placed next to Liverpool’s similar statistics in recent seasons—reflects just how poor a fit that approach was for the club.

Goals for and against both reflect overall success almost perfectly, and the differential makes things even more stark: In 2008-09 the club finished second after scoring 1.55 more goals per game than they conceded. In 2009-10 they scored 0.69 more goals than they conceded and finished seventh. Under Hodgson they conceded 0.15 more than they scored and were twelfth in the form table, while after Dalglish took over they scored an even goal more than they let in and rocketed to third in the form table. So far this season, they’re only scoring 0.22 more goals than they let in, and so it’s hardly surprising that they find themselves currently outside the top four—in fact, the only time in the past four seasons they’ve both scored fewer goals and conceded more of them per game was under Roy Hodgson. That they’re at least creating the chances has been an oft discussed topic, but the number of goals this side is letting in is equally worrisome.

And finally, two things really stand out: The 2008-09 team was far, far better than many fans realised at the time, and after the heady hopes of the summer this year’s squad seems a long ways away from matching its form. Perhaps a little surprising, though, is just how close Kenny Dalglish managed to take last season’s threadbare squad to matching those heights. If you’re a pessimist, that probably signals that more of an effort should have been made to supplement that squad instead of radically overhauling it. And if you’re an optimist, well, Liverpool’s always been a bit of a slow starter, and at least the first half of this season seems set to provide a better platform than the first half of the last one did.


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  • "If you’re a pessimist, that probably signals that more of an effort should
    have been made to supplement that squad instead of radically
    overhauling it. And if you’re an optimist, well, Liverpool’s always been
    a bit of a slow starter, and at least the first half of this season
    seems set to provide a better platform than the first half of the last
    one did."

    I guess I find myself more on the pessimistic side because surely strategically adding to a squad that was already on fire, rather than overhauling it would not have upset the balance, and Liverpool would have continued to dominate like they were.

    For instance, just adding Enrique, Bellamy, Downing and maybe Coates to the squad whilst not selling or dropping Meireles and Maxi, would have filled the void in much needed positions whilst keeping the core of an already decent team.

    Anyway, to try and be a little optimistic, we are creating chances so if some of them start going in then I guess it's happy days. Although, that doesn't account for the fact we've only kept two clean sheets this season.

  • Geoff Twentyman

    It was always going to take time for 6 new regular first teamers to integrate into the team. Some have adapted quicker than others, some have been played out of position to accomodate the boss' formation and set up and some have had to adapt to a very different style of play from their previous team.

    The existing team also have been through a huge tactical change. Our best performances were when we were able to play Rafa's favoured 4-2-3-1, we've seena total redesign under Hodgson and then the re-building under Kenny for 7/8 of the existing squad. 

    The class of Alonso, Masch, Gerrard and Torres can not be underestimated. Whilst the defence was generally sound, it was the deep lying protection of Alonso (check his tackling stats) and Masch as well as ofen relatively defensive minded wingers in Kuyt/Riise that kept us so tight; this defensive compactness was often the problem under Rafa. We often looked like we couldn't unlock the front door let alone the defence, but when we clicked, my god it was glorious - see Real/Man U.

    Under Kenny we have a more free flowing style and whilst we create lots of chances, I'm not convinced they're as well worked as they were under Rafa. I'm happy we're creating of course, but it is concerning that the level of defencsive solidity looks to have been lost. At this point I'd rather have the current Keegan-esque "we can score more than you" approach than the drivel served up under Woy.

    Again, I'm no expert, but I am concerned about the wisdom of a 4-4-2 in the modern game. I'm concerned that like Rafa, Kenny doens't quite have the balance right, albeit on the other side of the spectrum.

    Rafa had a couple of transfers that didn't quite make the grade, but all of his big money signings were successes. I'm concerned that Kenny/Commoli have brought in a couple of players that don't quite make sense (perhaps I should add 'just yet') and have paid a lot of money for them.

    Edit: Why are we concerned about the money spent on these players? Its due to the perceieved level of intended investment by our owners? If we were owned by a Sheik or oil magnate, we wouldn't give a jot about signing a $35m player to sit on the bench.

    The strength of your squad is interesting when you ask if any of your players would make it into any of the sides above you:

    Reina - Yes
    Enrique - mostly
    Carra - not now
    Agger - mostly
    Skrtel - prob not
    Johnson - possibly
    Kelly - Yes - not as a starter, but as a squad player for potential as much as anything
    Downing - prob not
    Kuyt - not at 31
    Adam - perhaps as a squad player for his set pieces
    Lucas - Yes
    Gerrard - not at this point in time - if he proves his injury is behind him/recaptures form etc, maybe
    Suarez - Yes
    Carroll - prob not
    Bellers - prob not
    Spear - prob not
    Flanno/Robbo/Coates/Wilson - possibly for their potential.

  • Luis Suarez Dentist

    In 2008-2009 we had Xabi Alonso now we have Charlie Adam! I miss the 2008-2009 team and if only we had Suarez then instead of Robbie Keane!

  • PDubz18

    The largest difference between 2008-2009 and now that I see is when we get tremendous talent and game-changing players, we won't scare them away by trying to replace them needlessly (e.g. Xabi Alonso, Riise).

  • Luis Suarez dentist

    There is some truth in your point but don't forget that Rafa was always fighting with one hand tied behind his back thanks to Gilette and Hicks.

  • Jamie Carragher's Hoof

    Man, those days feel like an eternity ago. I totally forgot Robbie Keane was our player for half that season..

  • JPR

    Noel, if you're going to scare us with the graphs at least give us the rainbow picture of Woy to put things in perspective. The Halloween theme is timely.

    A few points on the graphs. The number of shots per game should be 143/9 = 15.9 shots per game. That makes it the only period averaging over 15 and places it in it's own special section. (I'll give the #'s below).

    Take Spurs out of the numbers, since it was an aberration where we played 12 against 10, and the numbers look much better. (No way we give up 4 goals without 10 guys and maybe even score one). The numbers would be: Goals scored per game 12/8 = 1.5; goals conceded per game 6/8 = .75; shots per game 140/8 = 17.5.

    I'd like to see tackles per game by player so I can see who is dragging their arses. Chaz??? (Player, total minutes played, total tackles, tackles per 90 minutes). Another time maybe.

    That last set of graphs will look much better when we star scoring our chances and taking the points . ANY DAY!!

    Shots - Sunderland 12, Arsenal 13, Bolton 21, Stoke 21, Spurs 3, Wolves 15, Everton 15, Manc 15, Norwich 28!! --- Total shots = 143, 9 games, 143/9 = 15.9 shots per game. Dese boys like to shoooot! If dey wud just learn to hit da back of da net.

  • Right or wrong, Opta's still insisting it's 13, 12, 14, 16, 3, 13, 13, 11, 21 = 116 = 12.89 per

  • JPR

    This is interesting. Bolton, Stoke and Norwich, the numbers I'm using are 19 more that OPTA. Don't have time to research in depth, but I looked at Norwich to try to get some insight.

    My number of shots for Norwich from my service is 28, ESPN has 29, BBC has 25, OPTA has 21, Guardian chalkboards have 29. The Guardian chalkboards break it down to; goals 1, on target 8, off target 12, blocked 8, total of 29. Maybe OPTA does not include the blocked shots? I would think that including the blocked shots gives a more true indiation of what is happening in the game. 8 shots that hit defenders are still shots, no? Means we are putting pressure on their goal, yes?

  • Could be. Certainly Nate of OYB and I have discussed some of the dicrepencies between sources before, which is odd since most of them source OPTA in the first place. In that case, however, since all the stats are sourced from the same databases it's a level playing field. Or: The stats from previous years are also leaving out blocked shots.

  • JPR

    Yea, that's what it is. The Guardian includes blocked shots and OPTA does not.
    If we want to be an elite team then we have to average 2 goals a game and give up less that tne (.75).
    The Spurs game with 2 reds and 4 goals conceded is very much skewing the stats for 9 games.
    That 2008/09 team was very very good. Rafa did some job.
    We need to start scoring our chances AND create a few more more chances (15 per game). We need to score at least every 7.5 attempts. 

  • redrk

    they dont just like to shoot,they like to leather it from 6 yards where a deft touch can do the job...

  • JPR

    i saw stewie almost kill 10 fans on saturday with a leftie blast from eight.

  • Redarmy

    I bet he's got the best left foot of any right winger out there!

  • Ravenilli

    As promised. Just getting back to the computer after a very disappointing Norwich game but a great first time experience to visit Anfield and would recommend it to anyone. But here is the manager and captains notes from before the game. Enjoy.

    http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/emai...

  • redtrev73

    Cheers man. Shame about the result but there's no such thing as a bad trip to our Mecca I guess.

  • Ravenilli

    Yeah really loved the experience. Couldn't believe how run down the area is around Anfield. It's an absolute hole of a place on every side of the ground except for the Anfield Road end of the stadium. 

  • redtrev73

    Rough enough joint alright, Ravenilli but great folks in my experience. Reminds me a lot of some of the areas of Dublin I lived in...did you get a chance have a pint in The Albert or The Park? 

  • Ravenilli

    Yeah I will agree with you there everyone I met there even the blue noses were great craic and if I needed information they would give it to you. Had just a pint in The Park as it was mental in there and then after the dinner in The Boot Room I went to The Albert and had great craic in there. Met Howard Gayle in the Boot Room which was a good experience.

  • Kai

    Good man!

  • brother jon

    so how to explain the limp noodle tendency in those graphs, in the era of King Kenny v.3? promising potential, underwhelming payoff.
    - uselessly tiny data set? maybe, but what else do we got, right? besides, blurry picture or not, we're still losing to stoke and letting norwich equalize at Anfield. no dis intended, canaries, i dig your game, but we're a little more ambitious than that. sorry?  or maybe...
    - the summer overhaul meant we were always gonna be slow-ish out the gate? kinda like the 1st 5k in a new car. so yeah, kinks need working out, but if i'm honest, and besides J Ricky, the more i've seen of the new parts, the less impressed i've been. which of course means i'm still pretty excited about Andy and Coates too.  i'm not saying the rest are crap...  jus sayin' tho'.  or...
    - the job requires a balance of man-mgmt and tactical skills, and Kenny hasnt' found that balance yet? i'm def not sayin' that either. his record is not to be trifled with, i know, jus saying tho'  or, the corollary ...
    - Sammy Lee was a the brains AND the brawn? a lucky charm? the one that got away? unfortunately, on this one, time will not tell. so scratch that. or, 
    -maybe 6th heading into the first turn (with your best groin just getting loosened up) and with untapped potential in a fair few places is not too xabi afterall.

    prolly, a little of each, with time making the final decision.  we're a win under the 2pts per game threshold. i reckon 18 pts from the next 9 games is a decent measuring stick. and there should be a lot more answers about the parts too.  in the mean time, can Jay get a game against Stoke? he ain't scared. and we could use some fire and industry in the middle (while the finishing gels.)  and the noodle stiffens.

  • redtrev73

    Brother Jon, my head was spinning  like the unfortunate chick from The Exorcist reading that but I think I got it all and yeah...I think I agree fella.

  • brother jon

    YOU'RE head was spinning?? ha!

  • Kingrafa

    Ever since the preseason, the defence is out of sync. what happened? It used to be one our strengths?! We're looking good in posession but without the ball we look confused. That is really worrisome.

  • redrk

    exactly...under benitez we used to be rock solid at back.even in the second half of last season we were solid at back.we are creating chances and m sure if keep on creating we would finish them eventually but centre backs are a concern,hope kenny sorts it out as soon as possible.

  • JPR

    Spearo and DAgger wud fix it.

  • redrk

    its the dagger's partner in the central defense and dagger's injuries i m concerned about...

  • JPR

    don't go there. it's very dangerous. muy peligroso! at least go out and buy a case of cerveza first.

  • At least last time, that conversation was actually shockingly civil—everyone seemed to agree the club needed to have bought somebody like Coates two years ago so that there'd be a legitimate option for replacing Carragher today, but since they hadn't everybody probably just had to cross their fingers and hope for the best in a less than ideal situation.

  • JPR

    Don't be stirring up any more shit Noel. The one blogger who responded to your story was very irate. Spittin nails mad. Carra has been doing the business lately and getting stronger each game, I think. And maybe LFC does owe it to him. But, KK will never let it get too "dangerous" before working in a "sub". Again, I think.

  • Redarmy

    I think the current table (minus Newcastle) is a good reflection of where we stand right now. Slightly above Arsenal, a little below Spurs with the top three out of reach. Struggle for 4th place is on!

  • redtrev73

    Graphs!! Charts!! Statistics!! Moneyball!! Pretty pictures make Trevor happy...and sad...why does the bad man show Trevor pictures that make him sad??

  • Latortillablanca

    hi, my name is _______, and i chortled at this.

  • Latortillablanca

    solid point made about how good we got during the benitez reign... i really hope he lands a good gig somewhere; would love to see him at malaga...
     
    10 (9) games in, if this is our baseline, fine. when it comes to the next 2 months, i couldn't care less who is on the damn pitch, what position they play, how slow they are or how much we paid to bring them in, so long as we win the winnable games and relieve pressure on ourselves for that sadistic, moronic, money-grubbing holiday period...  we're gonna have to make up for that spurs result on the return fixture, and another point against manure would do me fine. 
     
    in the shorter term, if we dont improve the finishing, i cant see us getting anything off chelsea and city... city jus seem mechanical.  like someone should cut yaya/kompany to make sure its not just the new T-1000s strollin around out there.  and did anyone watch the chelski qpr game?  even with 9 men, the blues completely bossed that game and cud've easily won with a bit more luck... not sayin, im just sayin...
     
    so if that's gonna be the case, then these bottom feeder, mid table teams need to get got. straight up. no more bs.  i dont care if we have 1 shot the whole game, so long as it goes in.  i really think this is where carroll could be key.  he's the type of player that causes - indirectly or directly - simple chances.  one or two easy tap ins start goin in every game, and with the pressure off, those wunderkind plays suarez is prone to will start hitting the back of the net.  thats exactly what we bought carroll for, not to play tiki taka, but to be a brute, get some ugly, scrum goals in that will ease the load on our skill players...

  • KC

    Its hard for Carroll to be brutish because he's so big and tall, referees seem to always call against him when often its not his fault. However, that being said, he could do a lot more to get headers in and try alot harder to push his way around. Because if he creates those chances by barging in like a battering ram, he's bound to get something in right?

  • tGryffin

    Hopefully once he starts scoring goals, teams will treat him with a "Hack-a-Shaq" approach, and he will start getting the foul calls from the thugs in red in white stripes.

  • redtrev73

    Yep. Citeh look awesome but, as they used to say in my old war comics, they "don't like it up 'em" and if we play the high-pressing game perfected by Rafa's boys in 08/09, we'll have a chance. Ditto with Chelski. 

    You make a very important point regarding the taking of chances. I'm sure none of us could give a continental fuck how ugly our graphs get if Andy was bundling home our only attempt at goal off his arse and we were winning 1-0. The whole dominating possession, having insane amounts of shots, playing decent footie and then conceding silly goals and  dropping points thing is getting VERY tiresome. Time to win ugly...and it doesn't get much uglier than Andy's ponytail.

  • Tom Foolery

    We wouldn't want to start sounding like Arsenal fans, would we?

  • redtrev73

    Oh Heaven forefend, Tom....

  • redrk

    yes lets start winning ugly...starting from tomorrow,britannia thugs should be our first victims...

  • KC

    I like to think that we're still finding our bearings and we will start hitting our momentum and scoring those goals that we keep creating. And we do this while everyone else tires from bring in Europe and having smaller squads that start having injury problems and stuff. But I do hope that we start hitting our stride soon

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