Signings Cost Money, Lucas on Home Form, and Other Thursday Notes

Yeah, Ed, Hubbard's evaluations do seem pretty accurate and fair, even if some of them hurt to read.

http://www.givemefootball.com/... - does anybody think we could just let them win and then we'll have Xabi back?

It's a couple games in and others might be looking over at the signings and having a chuckle over the prices paid and the kinds of performances they're convincing themselves are not worth the amount paid. Not that we're going to care that much...

All that would be worth it when in a couple of seasons each and everyone of them turn in the kind of performances Lucas is doing now. The winner always laughs last..

Well if he's going to bring cost into it, then no evaluation of cost is complete without reference to how much was in the coffers in the first place (which no one really knows).  

If you've spent 50m on a bright unproven prospect, but it so happens amount is merely chump change compared to what you still have, then it's not much of a gamble is it?  If the guy doesn't work out, well no big deal, go out and spend another 100m and see if it's better this time.  On the other hand, if you've spent 10m on one man and that's your entire warchest, then evaluations need to be made as to whether it was all worth it.

And so, instead of looking at flat cost, the real question is how much does John Henry really have for Dalglish to use?  Has he spent most of it on Jordan Henderson and Andy Carroll, or was that just the tip of the iceberg?  All we know is he's got more than Mike Ashley and less than Sheikh Mansour.  Not really enough data to draw any conclusions there.  

I kinda disagree, as they knew they would be paying over the top for solving the teams short term problems, hence going for players who were performing  in the epl already.
I don't think we'll see such figures spent on epl players again and the next set of purchases will very much reflect the owners and Commoli's value based approach. I would be suprised if we bought 'hot property' in the next transfer window.

Well, the question is, what's considered 'over the top'?  Is it relative to what others would/can pay, or is it relative to what the buyer can pay?  (in this case, John Henry and FSG).  Take Sheikh Mansour for example.  I'd say even though he pays a premium for every player he even sniffs at, all his spending on Man City actually isn't over the top - including 50m for Torres, because he wants to win the title and he's prepared to spend a fortune to get it - only for him, it's not really a fortune.  Basically he's building the team he wants and for less than what he was prepared to spend to get it, and evaluated against that, he's got a great deal.  

As for John Henry, we don't know how much he's willing to spend.  He could be maxed out, or he could have loads more he's prepared to invest.  At the end of the day, he wants Liverpool to be successful and profitable for him over the next 5, 10, 15 years.  If his spending ends up bringing him that return, then it's not over the top at all.

the mentality that its great overpaying just because you can is one of the (many and varied) reasons the banks failed.  What happens if Mansour leaves next season and city have 12-15 players on over 100k a week?  chelsea, same thing. they're in an artificial position of financial stability because the clubs themselves arent making anywhere like what its taking to run them.  these are football's version of housing bubbles, and in no way should they be condoned.

that's why the FSG and Arsenal models are badass, they're actually paying for their own lunch, as well as setting aside money for dinner and tomorrow's breakfast.

LFC acquisition funds are limited, although significant and available. We always need to obtain value for funds spent. There are always purchases that will not work out. It's the nature of the game. FFP will require clubs to live within means as dictated by revenues. Clubs cans avoid FFP to an extent by arranging compensation for players with commercial deals outside of the club. For example, Yaya Toure gets a multimillion $ image rights payment. I think Santos arranged $10 mil of compensation for Neymar with Coca Cola or Nike.

Andy Carroll will be a great asset to this team. He is good and has the potential to be "a beast" as GT says. The"issue" here always seems to price. Carroll was brought in when the supporters were upset about losing Torres and Henry was new and had an unknown reputation. A big name high profile signing was needed at that moment to assuage the upset of the fans, continue the positive vibe around the club and establish Henry's reputaion as someone who would "do right" by the club. The extra $20 mil was money well spent.  

I think we bought EPL players cus they could adapt quickly and without Champions League it would cost alot more to get players from outside of England. Once we qualify for Champions League we'll be able to attract players like Marin ect for a reasonable price. 

the home draws have cost us clearly, as Lucas points out, yet one of those converted to a win (2pts) would significantly  alter the complexion of our position in the table, putting us firmly in the midst of the 3rd/4th/5th mix.

In addition I think those few dropped points will be very good motivation for the guys.  So it's not too gloomy 10 games in.

For all of Spurs being further along in their 'project', and having a pretty awesome midfield,  their goals for are 2 extra both home and away, but their goals against are also 2 extra both home and away when compared with us (albeit 1 game less).  

We're not doing too bad, or they're not as far ahead as they should be.

Lucas is just terrific these days, he's really leapt in maturity and incisiveness and I think he battles Parker for the best in the league in that position.  

He doesn't necessarily grab the midfield by the scruff of the neck when we need it (perhaps a tall order in his position), but I'm very optimistic that he'll develop further now - you have to develop a base skill before you can build on it and that seems to be what's happening with him.

It was a terrific pass from him to Suarez to Carroll for the second goal against West Brom.

The Suarez diving claims quickly vocalised by SAF still really bothers me.  Most forwards will go down under contact but aren't good enough to generate as many opportunities as he does.  It certainly looked as if the ref at West Brom wasn't going to give the pen until his linesman flagged for it.

For me, it's an indication of just how corrosive SAF's influence on the game is and how much better the game will be when he hangs up his boots.  

His English managerial pawns will then  have to fight their own ground and what will hit the limelight is just how mediocre they are [hence our national team grief - it's symptomatic of our game, managers and traditions].  The media will look ridiculous defending them.

It was great that he appears to have very quickly stopped going to ground. it will be to our cost, but it SHOULD keep decisions going his way as they should given the torrid time he gives defenders.

Re Lucas - yes amazing, yet still vastly underated. I wonder how he would be perceived if he were at Barca instead of Busquets? BTW we now we're linked with Spurs misfit Tom Huddlestone - if this is true, could he be ideal cover for our Brazilian?

another midfielder?  surely not....

i dunno jonny, deep down, its so much better having a powerful nemesis. gonna be much more boring bashing united without the endless material saf provides us...

I know what you're saying, but I'm just not comfortable with the level of influence he has, eg loaning players to his son's club and then withdrawing them when his son gets sacked, the way refs and other managers immediately repeat anything he says and it's taken as the gospel.

Everyone thinks it's funny and laughs along, but I'm afraid it's insidious and nasty.

Re Norman Hubbards evaluation:

If Carroll clicks with our system and Kenny's vision, then he will be a monster - simple as.
If he doesn't, then we will have paid over the odds for him, but come on people, which manager hasn't spent big money on a player who didn't turn out like they'd hoped?

With Henderson, again its a tired old evaluation. Young kid does well for home town team, gets picked up for big money and takes time settling in, no longer big fish, getting used to new style of play etc Of course he's not better than Aqua or Meireles, who have 4 and 6 years of experience over him! Patience, at $16m he was the same price as other Eng U21 (ok only Phil Jones springs to mind) so I don't know why its such a big deal when its LFC.

Coates again is the young buck, deemed better value, but seen as a brighter prospect. If he adaps well, he'll be seen as a huge bargain. If he struggles to settle, he'll be seen as a reasonably priced gamble on a young player with potential that didn't quite make it.

Downing does provide, and I think the score reflects a good start with the fade away we've seen, but its the other players as much as Downing that will make his performances successful or not, as one of the key factors for evaluating him is chance creation and goals scored. In saying that, Maxi or a player of his ilk, currently seems more suited to our style of play. Looking at the average player heat maps, we may have been better off with Young, as he is more of a wing/forward rather than the winger that Downing is, but regardless, he is a useful addition.

Bellamy is a 32 year old striker cum winger who gives us an option and Doni of course is experienced back up. These are not going to shape the future of the club, but give us some options for the here and now.

Adam was $7.5m for a squad player - again there's value there. An EPL performer, not a gamble like bringing in a foreigner with a big rep.

Kenny's biggest mistake in my book was bringing in so much change at once becuase as with the foreigner taking time to settle arguement, that still applies to EPL palyers moving to a new team with new colleagues and a new playing style. This seasons slow start can be mostly attributed to settling in. If after 20 games we still have the same questions, then I'll beasking different questions and offering a different opinion!

Good summary. 

I think Adam can be looked at as both good and bad.  A squad player with a wicked left foot or the contrary view might be to have chosen a player with more mobility which seems to be a must these days.

That's not a slam dunk though, we bought Degen who had some pace but not much else.

I think the issue with bringing in so many players is more about how much development those players need - all the midfielders for example not to mention Carroll, but in fairness in came Downing and Bellamy and I don't think they saw Adam as requiring too much 'development' though he clearly does.

But the squad building to handle the whole season, and building for the longer term is clearly a deliberate strategy.  

Many of our seniors typically have contracts expiring at the end of next season so we have either 1 or a healthy 2 seasons to develop new players - an opportunity we mustn't waste (hence the purchase of the young Hendo and Carroll).

I think not having ECL footy and top wage levels are huge factors aswell, especially as we've lost players looking for higher playing levels.  I think buying English was partly to reduce the loss of players on this front and if you can't attract the best, foreign is definitely greater risk for the EPL.

I also think the squad really catching its stride is a season long endeavour.  You're right that at 20 games questions are valid, but you can't always hurry team maturity.  I think it will come and we will have a very good run in to the end of the season and it will be decisive.

Spurs are doing ok and look good but have dropped points when challenged, even if they're better this season, and there's no way Arsenal have fixed their defence.

good stuff guys.  think hendo has shown enough in the early going to suggest he'll be a better player than either meireles or aqua?  personally, i think in 2 seasons we'll be looking back at the 16m and wondering what all the fuss was about...

Agree with hendo. Expect him to be really good in a year or two. Good posts.

international breaks should go Christian Poulsen themselves hard with their Degens.

Yeah, I must've missed the match where we hit a bear...

Woy's tenure instilled a fear in me before every Liverpool game that goes down to the very core of my being. These are brighter days, however, so I refuse to be fearful or nervous or whatever else. 3-0+ for the Liverpool!

That bear must be really pissed when he keeps getting hit with footballs....

Now I am getting really confused about my logo/avatar.

On the other hand, just got my black team shirt today. Grrr..

You guys just don't speak Portuguese.