Manchester United v. Liverpool by the Numbers

By: Noel | February 13th, 2012

Leading up to the match against Manchester United on Saturday, we looked at Liverpool’s league games against them over the past four seasons. Given the recent history of the match, a few things seemed clear: One, the home side was going to out-shoot the visitor. Two, the home side would probably take the edge in possession. And three, Manchester United would probably attempt more passes than Liverpool.

The real question was always whether Liverpool would be able to overcome their season-long habit of misfiring in front of goal to finally put away a few of the chances they did create. And perhaps more importantly, there was a question as to whether Liverpool could once again finish the match with more tackles than their opponents.

Tackles was a statistical category they had won in every one of the past seven matches and which had played a key role in Liverpool managing four wins and a draw in those games despite often being out-shot and out-passed. As such, a strong, resolute midfield performance seemed essential to keeping United’s quality chances to a minimum and providing a platform for attacking on the counter. And in the past, tackles had provided the quickest, easiest way of measuring just how successful Liverpool had been on that front in any given game. This time around, the answer was clearly not very: Liverpool had fewer tackles than Manchester United for the first time in four years.

Elsewhere, the story lined up just about as one would have expected going in. Before the match, based on past performances, it seemed likely that the home side would edge possession, shots, and total passes. And that’s exactly what happened. In fact, Manchester United’s 593 passes—with 522 of them completed—were the most passes attempted and completed by either side over the past eight league games, with United clicking at an impressive 88% success rate overall.

By comparison, though Liverpool still attempted a reasonably high 480 passes in the match—the fourth highest total by either club in the past four years—they only completed 82% of them. Meanwhile both sides were three for 16 on crosses, and though United out-shot Liverpool eleven to seven, preserving a streak that has seen the home side lead the category in every match over the past four seasons, they out-chanced Liverpool by a narrower eight to six margin.

In defence, however, there was a clear departure from what had made Liverpool unusually successful in their games against United in recent seasons. Where before Liverpool tended to have a clear edge, this time around they only took 50-50 challenges by the slimmest 49 to 48 margin. And as mentioned, for the first time in four seasons United edged the tackle game, taking the statistical category by a 23 to 21 margin while the two sides both committed 21 fouls.

United did what they always do well when the two sides face each other, but when it came to tackles and the taking of chances Liverpool quite simply didn’t. When it came to putting away their chances they only only converted one of their six compared to United’s two for eight—a 17% conversion rate compared to United’s 25%. Depressingly, while far from good enough, even this was up from a season average of around 10% that has kept Liverpool hovering in the bottom three in that category.

Looking at the recent games between the two clubs to form a baseline for expectation, United did exactly what the numbers said they would going in. Liverpool, by comparison, didn’t do the things they needed to do—and often have done in the past—to counter that. Blame whoever you want, from Suarez to Downing to Spearing to the coaching staff, but any way you come at it Liverpool knew what they were up against. For one of the few times in recent seasons when it comes to Manchester United, on Saturday they simply weren’t up to the task.

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Category: Miscellaneous, Premier League, Team News

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redtrev73

Thanks Noel. Top stuff, as per. Got a real kick (and rare LFC-related smile) out of yesterday's 'back and to the left' JFK high-jinks and today it's delightful to just crunch the numbers and stats irrespective of how atypically poor they are from a Liverpool viewpoint. Top man.
Ryan

But hey, positives. 17% is better than 10%. What if we can sustain this amount of finishing, does that mean we can get we will be getting an extra goal every two games or whatever? I'd like that; we could win every other draw.

IMPROVEMENT.
Noel

I think it just means that next time around it'll be no goals on six chances. But I am a pessimist, so take that as you will.
Suarez from the car park...

Before we weren't finishing, saturday we weren't strong enough in the tackling, and probably got passed around a bit too much, didn't create enough chances and failed to take the few scoring opportunities (2?) we got.
Somehow despite our midfield being pretty ineffective, we seemed to stop them playing after they got their goals, ultimately getting one back.

But our midfielders seemed a bit invisible and we didn't look like we were able to press them at all.
McrRed

The Blood-And-Thunder junkies amongst us are oft to be heard squalling about 50-50 tackles ducked out of and the need for more MEAT.

A while back (on Rafa's watch) there was a considered article written somewhere the premise of which was that "interceptions" were the new "tackle". The fact that Lucas is/was excellent at anticipating and making interceptions is no coincidence in his rise to the post-scapegoat role of LFC Saviour (if only he were fit again!) Long-winded intro to the question, Noel, but, are there stats for interceptions for the game?
Ryan

Alonso seems to have taken Rafa's tactics to heart, and I've read quotes of him talking about how if you are making tackles, that means you're making mistakes. You only have to tackle as a last ditch measure from being poorly positioned.

Zonal Marking did a piece on Rayo Vallecano in Spain, with stats telling that they had the most interceptions of all the teams in Europe. It was very interesting to see most of the Spanish teams high up on the list, with, if I remember correctly, English teams were near the bottom with some Germans. This is not only due to the fact that Spanish players play for the interception instead of the tackle, but mainly caused by the popularity of possession-based play in Spain.

Oh, you're talking about Liverpool. Whoops.
Geoff Twentyman

It's definately culture thing....when we were growing up, if you didn't have the ball, you were told to 'get stuck in'.

When you went in for a takle you were told if you limped in you had more chance of being hurt, so you have to go in hard.

Then there was the battle mentality of the game itself where you had to show passion and pride - one of the ways of doing this was to win the physical battle.

The quality of football was almost secondary and if you had any 'flair' players on your team they were targeted by the oppositions thugs to hiit hard and early to physche them out of the game!
Noel

I'd actually wanted to add that in at the end but was having issues getting at the data, so the belated answer to your question is United also edged interceptions by 23 to 20.
McrRed

Awww, shiiiiit. I don't mind being beaten by the scummy bastards but 23-20? Now I feel unclean!
Suarez from the car park...

beaten on the pitch, raped off it.
alex_snow2

Is there anyone else who'd rather see Fabio Aurelio on the left wing than Stewart Downing? Aurelio may be fairly slow and made of wet newspaper, but he has probably still got one of the best crosses in the squad. And given our style doesn't always require wingers to get to the byline, his pace isn't as important - he could easily whip balls in early. Just a thought.
Geoff Twentyman

No.

I'd like to see Gaston Ramirez, Andri Yarmolenko, Nicolas Gaitan, James Rodriguez, Eduardo Vargas or Jordan Ayew on the left wing rather than a left back.

Our wingers are why I think we struggle ni gaems in atack - we don't have any game changers.

There's no Nani/Valencia type player who can make things happen. Kuyt makes great runs and Downing puts ni a defensive shift, but if the two of them were replaced by players who put fear in the opposition with their pace and creativity, then we'd be driving teams back instead of invitnig them on.

I just don't like full backs on the wing regardless of their delivery quality.

Sorry

PS - Do you think Aurelio will have his contract renewed? Can't see it. What a shame a quality player never really got the most out of his career due to injuries...
Suarez from the car park...

no way will he be renewed. Rafa let him go due to injuries, but Hodgson bought him back as understudy to Konchesky!!

I think what you're saying is we need quality to add to Gerrard, Suarez and Bellamy!!

btw, our fullbacks and wide men suck at final passes.
DJ-Chutfield

When fit, I'd like to have 11 Aurelios...
ejbauer11

I thought we all wanted a team of carraghers?
Ryan

Ya but we all want to see Ian Rush and 10 magic ponies strut out at Anfield as well. Just take what you can get.
ejbauer11

Hah - how about Dalglish getting that weird placenta treatment from that German doctor?
Suarez from the car park...

that's just so wrong.
Luis Suarez Dentist

I think it's a good idea and definitely worth a shot. Aurelio's delivery is better than Downing and he could also help Enrique out when defending.

However, one problem.

For Aurelio to be fit it requires a full moon, the blood of a virgin, Earth to be in conjuction with Venus, a small army of witch doctors, the force, a solar eclipse and a handshake.

Scientists are fairly confident this event may take place within the next million years, but are making no promises......
Suarez from the car park...

that was at the @notTooXabi level. Kudos.
Geoff Twentyman

"For Aurelio to be fit it requires a full moon, the blood of a virgin, Earth to be in conjuction with Venus, a small army of witch doctors, the force, a solar eclipse and a handshake."

A little bit of wee escaped when I read this!
Luis Suarez Dentist

There was a football match played? Sorry I don't believe you. I have seen endless Sky bulletins, press reports, pundit comments etc and not once was it mentioned that a game actually took place.

I think it is very likely that you just imagined any football taking place.

Besides, even if a game did take place do you really think it matters compared to the far more important issue of a handshake? We have so many important questions to be answered regarding what is a handshake, angles of reaching out hands, eyecontact while shaking, who should put hand out first, should a bow be made etc etc and you want to waste our time talking about Football?

Shame on you!!!!!!!!!

You would do well to learn from the great BBC who had the handshake as their front page story on the BBC News page for most of yesterday. I suspect you are one of those misguided individuals who thinks that conflicts, the economy, the environment would be a more worthy story? - Wake up!

Now lets hope that you can realise your error and join the rest of the great English press in discussing handshakes.

P.S - If I have offended you with this rant, I am willing to offer my hand at a 90 degree angle and seeing as it's valentines day I will allow minimal eye contact..............
McrRed

"should a bow be made" ... had to chuckle at that!

I think the FA's finding was that a match probably happened and therefore, probably, Utd were the winners by a probable score of 2-1...on balance of probabilities.

See what's happened since we dropped Carlsberg as our sponsors?
Luis Suarez Dentist

Have to say that I would choose Beer over Bankers any day of the week!
Suarez from the car park...

If there was going to be a fuck up with the Carling shirts, it would probably be the best fuck up in the world.

which is really saying something given what a fuck up it was anyhow.
Latortillablanca

I appreciate the effort, I really do. But as much as we all want to, it's impossible to extricate a football match from what happened saturday. The handshake, the kamikaze tackle, halftime schenaningans, take your pick, but its pretty clear the team were thinking about numerous other things, both collectively and individually, before actually getting around to focusing on the match at hand.

For that reason, I don't think its fair or even really possible to draw any sort of conclusive opinion regarding anyone's play from that game. So, here's lookin at next week...
Suarez from the car park...

I'm hoping a new sober attitude in the dressing room translates to metal, steel, some determination and real attitude.

Feels like the honeymoon's over and now it's time to deliver.

I hope the squad takes to the pitch like major cunts over the next 3 months, a meanness that's not in it for glory, but to kill the opposition. Stone dead.

2-0 finishes that hold cos they're gonna lose their shins if they even try to get a goal back. Henderson needs to grow up fast, Carroll has to become the bully he can be and the wide men must show some intelligence.

Some 'Up yours Delors' if you please.