Liverpool, Number One at Missing Chances, and Other Monday Notes

By: Noel | October 24th, 2011
   
liverpool united 4-1 dossena

It’s only Monday, but already it’s almost time for another match. And for a moment it’s almost as though Liverpool were back in Europe once again, the games coming thick and furious and with hardly a moment to decompress in between them. Then you remember that Liverpool’s last bit of midweek football was a will-sapping friendly at Rangers, and that this week’s sees a trip to Stoke to face a side renowned for its ability to sap the will of opponents and their fans alike. In which case, if it is like being back in Europe—at least for a couple of weeks—then it’s much more the Europa League than it is the Champions League…

* In the wake of Manchester City’s historic 6-1 hammering of United at Old Trafford on Sunday, it was easy to take joy in the misery of Liverpool’s rivals: To laugh at a match that saw its final whistle blown while the stadium was half empty; to crack jokes about fairweather fans scrambling for their credit cards so they could purchase Silva shirts in sky blue; or to snicker about City’s Mario Balotelli figuratively burning down a stadium sometimes dubbed a toilet days after setting fire to his own bathroom with fireworks. All of which was all in good fun. It did, however, make it easy to forget Alex Ferguson and United’s past monumental defeats, from a similar slaughter at the hands of City in 1989 to Southampton dropping a half dozen on them in the nineties.

And of course, no list of United’s worst moments would be complete without mentioning Liverpool’s 4-1 victory at Old Trafford in 2009, a game marked by Vidic seeing red, Ferguson showing a lack of tactical nous by way of a triple substitution that left his midfield understaffed and ripe for the picking, a brilliant Fabio Aurelio free kick, Torres terrorising the United backline, and spare part Andrea Dossena capping the day with a cheeky chip over Edwin van der Sar.

Certainly it’s always a better day when Liverpool win—making the only result that matters that of a rival is more the purview of Everton, after all—but seeing Liverpool’s chief rivals fall to one of the worst defeats in their history is never a bad thing.

* There’s been a lot of talk of missed chances lately, and over on The Tomkins Times they’ve whipped out the charts and graphs in an attempt to answer a few questions. Most importantly, just how bad is it? The short answer: Terrifyingly bad.

In terms of Clinicality, Liverpool are just 22% and this only ranks 16th so far this season, way behind the “big 3” who are all 40% plus. Villa are top with 58%. It’s also half Liverpool’s Clinicality in 2010/11 (44%) and way below the league average this season of 35%. It’s worth noting that the teams ranking 14th and 15th are Spurs and Arsenal, Liverpool’s main rivals for a top 4 place.

Aside from the word clinicality making my head hurt, those are some pretty scary numbers that speak to Liverpool’s futility in front of goal. About the only bright spot is that Liverpool isn’t that far off Spurs and Arsenal, though the thought of City, United, and Chelsea all being nearly twice as good at putting their clear cut chances away is unavoidably depressing.

From a more positive perspective, Liverpool is the third best side at creating what stats collators OPTA term clear cut chances, well positioned amongst the other so-called top six sides—who all, somewhat unsurprisingly, occupy the top six positions when it comes to chance creation. However, that Liverpool has created the third most chances while only being ahead of Stoke, QPR, Wigan, and Sunderland when it comes to converting them on a per chance basis also means that no side in the league has wasted more chances—in total—than the reds.

There’s not much to hold on to by way of silver linings in all of the data, but at least Liverpool’s upcoming opponents in the League Cup seem likely to both create fewer total chances and to then convert those chances at a lower rate. So there’s that. Plus lots of charts and graphs.

* And ahead of that trip to the Britannia to face Stoke in the League Cup on a nippy weekday evening as the weather cools and the leaves fall, Steven Gerrard and his groin took some time to talk about the importance of that competition for a side that has seen a silverware drought in recent seasons:

Bringing those European nights back to Anfield is what we all want. Some of the best nights of my career have been in the Champions League and I want to experience a few more before I eventually hang up my boots.

At the same time it’s about trophies for me and I see the FA Cup and Carling Cup as also being very important. Because we are only involved in three competitions we have to focus on all of them.

There is no European football so you can afford to focus more on the Carling cup. We haven’t done well in any of the cups domestically since 2006. It’s time we gave the fans a bit of excitement again. They deserve it and there would be nothing better than going to Wembley. That would be fantastic for everyone.

After a number of lean years, a trophy—any trophy—certainly wouldn’t be something for the fans to turn their noses up at, and it’s been quite obvious in the early stages of the League Cup that Kenny Dalglish has placed an importance on going deep in the competition that hasn’t been seen in a very long time, so it’s hardly a surprise to find Gerrard preaching the company line.

What would be a little bit surprising is if the captain starts on Wednesday after having just returned from a long injury layoff and looking increasingly tired as the match against Norwich entered its final third on Saturday. Regardless of that, it seems a safe bet that Liverpool’s starting eleven against Stoke this week wouldn’t look out of place were it a league match and not a meeting in the lesser of England’s two top-flight cup competitions.

We’ll be back with any breaking news later on, but in the meantime, while you’re trying to remember where the goal is and that the key is hitting the back of it instead of the sides…


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  • PDubz18

    http://www.losc.fr/losc-tv/vid...

    Joe Cole interviewing Joe Cole. Well thank god he's happy in France; it would truly devastate me if he weren't enjoying his time.

  • Suarez from the car park...

    great tune.  Hits the spot, not enough of that recently (except for 1-6, 1-6, 1-6, say that again, 1-6, 1-6, 1-6).  
    Actually didn't mind Chelski losing aswell, though a win would have put ManUre down to 3rd.  I might even have rooted for Newcastle to haul them in then.

    I will keep shouting it from the rooftops.  Kenny and Steve (and Damien) have produced a team that creates chances against everyone, and doesn't look out of place against any team. An extra final pass occasionally would result in a fine goal tally. The defence needs a settled period and possibly another signing.

    that's for the coaching team to sort out.  But after 2010, and 9 games in, that reflects a  group of staff that are in a hurry and succeeding.  

    The players, formations, tactics we spend endless time discussing, questioning and criticising,  a permanently rotating defence line up and yet we're a whisker away from scoring at least 3 in every game.

    I've no doubt that the second half of the season will be stronger than the first which is a great prospect.  As the players bed in they will become more effective, better as a unit and more dangerous - they're clearly not bad now as a team.

    We've built rapidly and gone leap years ahead of where Roy could ever have taken us.  But it's the beginning, not the end we are watching.  That should make us all feel good.

    Great to have a mid week game.

  • redtrev73

    Careful Jonny-lad...All this optimism and calm, rational, patient talk of work-in-progress will have the cynics and haters on your case...I've got your back tho', fella.

  • Ryan

    By the way, I was gone. The damn assholes at the hotel wanted to charge 15 dollars a day for internet. So that most definitely meant no offside, and no pronz. 

    BALOTELLI IS AN HONORABLE MAN WITH GOOD JUDGEMENT. That is all, Americuh. 

  • I like Damien Comolli and what he does a lot.  Last season he and his network scouted a lot of players in France, Spain and Germany...nothing came of it.  Dalglish wanted local talent in the end so we bought Luis Suarez, Andy Carroll, Jordan Henderson, Charlie Adam, Stewart Downing, Alexander Doni, Jose Enrique, Sebastian Coates and Craig Bellamy.  Doni, as a backup keeper, is irrelevant.  Jose Enrique and Sebastian Coates are not British although this is Jose Enrique's fifth season in English football.  Luis Suarez was a brilliant signing and will be even better when we play him with someone other than Dirk Kuyt or the current Andy Carroll.  Carroll is a top prospect at center forward.  But paying £35 million for him when he was hurt was a terrible decision.  That money could have been spent on something else this past summer and we wouldn't be wasting time arguing about what to do with him.  He is still young, though and I would like to see him play rather than Dirk Kuyt.  Bellamy looks to be an excellent signing for the squad.  Jordan Henderson is a talented footballer with particularly decent touch for an Englishman but I think he and the club would be best off if he was playing where Charlie Adam is currently a stalwart.  Stewart Downing seems unnecessary or at least ill-suited at times.  The expectation was that his age and Premier League experience would make the transition fairly seamless but he has yet to be truly influential when Liverpool have possession in the opposing third.  Jose Enrique, despite not playing well against Manchester United and even worse against Norwich City, is a polished attacking left fullback.  It would be nice to see him cut in and lash a shot every now and again but that can wait.  Sebastian Coates has obvious physical attributes but is sitting a little too far down the pecking order to know much about him at the moment.  Now to Charlie Adam.  I left him last because I don't think he was on Damien Comolli's list.  I don't see the point to him.  He has incredible delivery from set pieces but Gerrard has supplanted him since his return.  He is also slow, flat footed, lacks endurance and is a poor tackler.  Yet Dalglish seems more invested in him than Carroll or Henderson, and that seems crazy.

  • Suarez from the car park...

    We never had £35m in the bank on the Carroll deal.  People need to get over it.  

    Carroll fits FSG's long term plans and him + £15m for Torres was good business for a player in demand.  I'd like to hear who else would have agreed to come to pool at the time (or even now).  Might be valid, sure.

    There is an argument that we could have done with someone older, more established (near Torres' age) but I bet we tried and couldn't get the quality.

    I think playing Henderson in a more attacking role is the right thing to do.  He needs to learn courage and aggression to go with his obvious skill, and that's better done further up than a deep lying role.  At 21 he's tremendously skilled, another season and a half I think he'll grow very well given the opportunity.

    Remember we're developing players for the end of next season when many of our senior players will likely not be offered new contracts - or if they are, it will be short and as bench warmers due to age/experience.  

    Even so, we're creating chances against everyone we play and an extra final pass on occasion would give us a fine goal tally.

    Adam.  I think with all the analysis, we all knew what we were getting from Adam and he's exactly what was expected.  And yet he's not the one costing us games.  

    The concern is that him and Carroll don't have the mobility expected of modern players and we have yet to see what will develop.  I think they'll improve, the only question is how much, and ultimately they'll be replaced/added to if it's not enough.

    9 games in and I think it's going well.  Each quarter season will see an improvement and we all discuss where that's needed.  And that's the really promising thing.  Decent results from first 9 games.

  • Red2death

    Regarding the OPTA stats, there's also the question of what constitutes a 'clear-cut chance'.  If the league average of conversion is only 35%, then those chances can't be that clear-cut can they?  

    But whatever it is, it sucks to lead the table in chances missed.  Not sure what can be done though.  Comolli and co have recruited to maximize chance creation, and also got players who have historically high chance conversion rates.  That should translate into many goals at some point, somewhere, over some period of time...

    Or we can just go with Kenny's explanation - Norwich were terribly unlucky to lose to Utd, and they saved up all that luck for Anfield.  It sickens me how many times our opponents' keepers make it to EPL team of the week.  'Why always us?'

  • JPR

    It's can only a matter of a time. No doubt our conversion of clear cut chances will average 35 to 45% for the entire year. Which means there should be a stretch where we convert 50 to 70%, or whatever, above the average. Exactly as you observe, 'that should translate into many goals at some point". NO way it will stay at 22% for the year.

    With you also on "what creates a clear cut chance"? I can think of at least 3 for Luis, but OPTA says he had only 1 at Norwich. The early cross that he volleyed and was deflected by the keeper onto the post, the cutback that put him pretty clear with the keeper and he pushed it to his right only to have it deflected by a late onrushing defender onto the left post, and Stevie's late peach of a cross onto his toe which he volleyed and was saved by the keeper. I would even call his weak header a pretty clear cut chance.

    Leading the table in chances missed is OK as long as we increase the CCC conversion %.

    Luis has (OPTA) 12 clear cut chances in 9 games. At least 3 more than anyone else. No doubt he created most of these by himself. Which confirms what we all already know. He IS brilliant. He's dangerous every time he receives the ball. Should just add that last moment glance across the box for an open guy before shooting.

  • Red2death

    I sure hope so.  Because all that lack of clinicalalalility will really do us in come the end of the season.   

  • JPR

    Wut I thought too. United had a 100% clinicalalalility on Sunday and it made Fergie cry and me laugh. It can be overrated. And, yes the devilish delight I got at the instant Karmic return there makes me one sick fucker. Always prefer a Liverpool win, though.

  • Suarez from the car park...

    you're cursed damnit - go thrash yourself with the stripped branch of a birch tree.

  • Red2death

    heh... you said stripped...

  • Suarez from the car park...

    ....so did you....

  • Jack Coleman

    Ok, slightly off topic:

    Mario Balotelli has spent the afternoon driving manchester city centre in his Bentley, music booming, high-fiving man-city fans.

    That is exactly what all footballers would want to do but he actually does it. And if he doesn't then I really want to believe that he does.

    I don't think we should read much into the rangers game, a midseason friendly must rank below a preseason friendly in terms of arsed-ness. It will feel like a PL game I think because of the opposition.

  • Suarez from the car park...

    I wanna do that, please, please, me me me......

  • kenny

    Everyone misses their fair share of chances, but does Suarez not have the help of others to make them. Torres was given his, and he did create, but seemingly more times given. Is Suarez relying more on him self than others? Torres had Gerrard, Kuyt, and Benayoun in a time we now have Gerrard just coming back, Charlie Adam , and Henderson or Kuyt depending on how things are set. I know we there are Enrique and Downing but I'm speaking in terms of center mids linking with forwards. Do I make sense? I don't know .

  • Gav-loves-kop

    u got yo thought pattern a wee bit muddled son

  • JPR

    we got the point though, jonny and gavloves. it made perfect sense after 12 irish coffees.

  • Suarez from the car park...

    my head gets like that too.

  • Latortillablanca

    every time i daer clinicality i leef dislexic.  

    ne one catch the milan v lecce game?  kevin prince boateng.  guess who recruited that unchained beast... yup yup. DC, baby, DC.  we've already done this, but just for shits n giggles that list includes some names u might be familiar with: toure (the not quite world class one), eboue, clichy, kaboul, hutton, bale, dos santos, taarabt, modric, assou-ekotto, berbatov. oh and his time at monaco also saw him play a hand in the pires and henry signings for arsenal.

    remember how shite everyone thought half these players were, then given the right manager/situation they basically all fourished in to good or very good or excellent players?    ya. cha-boy.  patience, faith.  it'll come good.

  • NotTooXabi

    We set-up for Suarez on Saturday, and there were moments of beauty along with suburban-outlet-mall-sized gaps in our midfield. There's no need to beat the dead horse about created vs missed chances. Besides, I'm a bit worried that our beating a dead horse would look like my attempts at a pinata in hurricane weather after 7.2 margaritas.

    For this week I think there's a line-up for Carroll on the ole chalkboard ready for deployment. Something to feed him the way we fed Suarez this weekend.

    Question #1: What does the Andy Carroll XI look like?
    Question #2: What's the best match to bring the thunder, at Stoke or at West Brom?

  • Purify_the_body

    #1: I think the Carroll XI looks like this:

    Reina
    Skrtel - Carra - Agger
    Johnson - Lucas - Enrique
    Henderson - Gerrard
    Suarez - Carroll

    Stoke or West Brom makes no difference. 

  • redtrev73

    Have an inkling Andy will start with maxi and Bellers or Stew-pot feeding the big lug. Lucas and Spearo will probably play with Chaz 'undroppable' Adam. This potential line-up does not inspire me but my Spidey-sense is telling me it's likely.

  • Avinash

    Jesus! your comments are cryptic. Half the time I read the nicknames you give the players thrice before I realize who you are talking about. And about carrol I have a feeling he might not take this one seriously too. But then as king says only he knows what's going on with him.

  • Suarez from the car park...

    Carroll's in good hands.  @redtrev73:disqus on the other hand......

  • redtrev73

    Eh...where are you going with this Jonny?!

  • Suarez from the car park...

    no idea.  just imagined you weren't under Kenny's care!

  • redtrev73

    Well, shows what you know Jonny...I receive a wee care-package from Kenny and Marina every month with some food and blankets. Bless their hearts....they know the Woy-era was hard on me...

  • Latortillablanca

    it was a regular season friendly against rangers - who gives a flying fuck if he took it seriously... had that header gone in against norwich, everyone'd be proclaiming Mr. Overpriced British Lackey our savior.  can't wait for us to figure out how to play with his clumsy ass so we can go back to arguing over adams brilliance/futility... oh wait...

  • Suarez from the car park...

    Careful how you say that...

  • JPR

    Right on 'blanca. Had Andy converted that late header or Luis scored that late chance, everybody's comments for the last two days would be doing a complete 180 and hailing the Lug as our savior. Who gives a fuck about Rangers. We did United for the last 20 minutes and blew Norwich off the pitch for most of the game. Only a matter of time now. Hope it begins with Pulis and Woy. So, everybody can hop on the damn bus.

  • redtrev73

    Sorry Avinash...I am sometimes guilty of direct mind-to-blog transfer with no filter. Apologies. As for Andy, if he doesn't take this seriously, the stories already circulating on some Magpie websites about a return to Geordieland may not be as ridiculous as we may think.....

  • You apologize for a lack of filter then spout words like "Geordieland." Hilarious! Please never get that filter installed.

    As for Carroll's XI, I wouldn't mind seeing Bellers and Stewie on the flanks with Dirky playing off the big lug. I know he's not a CAM by trade, but he has a real eye for goal, eye for picking a pass and I can't think of a single position where he wouldn't be useful (GK too!) Just think back to the Kuyt-and-Suarez Show last season. They haven't quite hit it off as big time sty-lee as they did last, but patience and all that. Maybe he can strike up something similar with And0rz. 

  • Tom Foolery

    As seen vs. Norwich, when Craig and Stew are on the pitch, they are as inverted wingers and thus lack an ability to cross naturally. This is my fear, that we don't set up to take advantage of our strikers strengths. Too many crosses to Wee Luis, too few to Big Dandy.

  • With all due respect to inklings far and wide, Craigers won't be anywhere near the starting XI on Wednesday after starting against Rangers and Norwich. Fully expect Hendy-Pendy to get a game after a few weeks off, too, and at the back Aggergustus III  and M-Dawg will start after having the weekend off.

    I'd stake my non-existent reputation on it.

  • Tom Foolery

    ...M-Dawg? Is that Martin Kelly? And, since the start of the season, I've expected the Son of Hender to start most matches. I'd much prefer to see him in a central adavanced role, but we shall see. Enreeking had a night off last outing, any chance of the Fabiolous One getting the LB spot?

  • redtrev73

    Way to up the nickname quotient Noel!

  • Avinash

    Holy Fuck I just opened a can of worms didn't I?

  • redtrev73

    Was just thinking the same Avinash...that'll teach you to mock my unwittingly cryptic writing mate!!

  • Tom Foolery

    Not sure who to credit for this gem, but my favorite one, "JonathonJoseph Shelvey"

  • Latortillablanca

    um, thatd be me.  not that im counting...

  • redrk

    so in terms of clinicality we stand at 16th...i thought we were 20th.even arsenal are converting their chances...

  • Suarez from the car park...

    16th in seeing the gynaecologist, yet 6th in the table.  Inevitable improvement portends good things.

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