Has Stewart Downing Faded After a Strong Start?

By: Noel | October 11th, 2011

Stewart Downing got off to a flying start for Liverpool, coming out against Sunderland, Arsenal, and Bolton as not just one of the club’s better players of the early going but potentially the long sought answer for the left side of midfield. Then, as quickly as he’d seemed to establish himself, in the eyes of many he became a question mark. All of a sudden, he might not have been worth all the money; he might not have been good enough after all.

Was it a case where, with the club at times struggling after a strong opening, people were simply looking at an attacking player who hadn’t scored his first goal for his new club yet and focusing on any negatives they could find when before they would have seen positives? Or had Downing’s game in fact declined after a strong start?

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At Aston Villa, he had scored seven times and set up seven more during the 2010-11 season, equaling a goal every five and a half games. However, while he may have scored that often on average, it was very much an average made up of highs and lows: In Villa’s first six Premier League matches last year, Downing scored three times, but after Christmas he scored just twice in the final 21 games. Manwhile, he went without a shot only three times in the league last season, and averaged 2.57 shots per match—though with only 0.68, or about two shots in three matches, reaching the target.

So far for Liverpool, Downing has gone without a shot once—against Everton in Liverpool’s last match—but his overall attempts have worryingly dropped to 1.71 per game. On the other hand, he’s been slightly more accurate, with 0.71 shots per match registering as on target. If his overall shots are down in the early going, then, that he’s actually putting more of them on target per match than he was last season—along with the fact that he did have some fairly long stretches that saw him go without a goal then—would seem to suggest that it isn’t the end of the world that he hasn’t found the back of the goal as yet, and that if he continues to hit the target at something like the current rate the goals that he scored last season should begin to come sooner or later.

Certainly it would be nice to see his shot attempts pick up a touch, but the overall numbers don’t suggest a player who should be doubted simply because he hadn’t score by the end of the Bolton match. Though of course, with Liverpool struggling against Stoke and Tottenham before looking less than entirely convincing against Wolves and Everton, the shift from “Doesn’t Downing look good on the wing?” to “He looks out of it and really needs to be doing more” might have been inevitable as fans began to search for causes of the club’s dip in form. Beyond the question of goals and shots, however, there remains the issue of whether there in fact has been a measurable dip in Downing’s output to justify such a shift in opinion—or if the only tangible reason that can be found in the end is a lack of end product that isn’t in fact much different from his past performance, and that for those who did think his play good enough in the early going likely isn’t the best measurable to judge his current performance on.

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From a defensive standpoint, the numbers suggest the Downing seen so far at Liverpool isn’t much different from the one who played for Aston Villa last season. He’s been a bit better in the air so far, certainly, but at the same time he’s been slightly worse in tackling and interceptions, while on the whole what pluses and minuses there are largely appear to even themselves out.

For most, though, the issue with Downing will never be his defensive ability, even if there will be an expectation that he put in the effort to get back and help when Liverpool loses possession. And at least on that front, that he has nearly fifty percent more aerial challenges, ground challenges, and tackles than Jordan Henderson—and that moreover his success rate in the first two categories is double Henderson’s—speaks to him putting in at least a competent defensive effort to date. Both new wide players’ defensive efforts pale in comparison to Dirk Kuyt’s from last year, when the industrious Dutchman put in a ground challenge every six minutes, an aerial challenge every 21.53 minutes, and a tackle every 38, but if Henderson has often come in for deserved criticism for leaving his fullback exposed, there’s at least little to suggest Downing has been especially poor in that respect even if he hasn’t excelled.

On the other side of the ball, and contrary to growing opinion, Downing in fact appears to have had some very good numbers since the Bolton match. At least up until Everton—which also happens to have been the only match this season where he was held without a shot. For pure chance creation, his three accurate crosses on nine attempts and five chances created from open play against Wolves are hard to top even considering the relatively low passing totals, while the numbers against Stoke are very similar to those against Arsenal—except that, again, he created noticeably more chances in the more recent match.

Everton is of course a notable outlier when looking at Downing’s nubers, both given the importance of the match and that Liverpool was up a man for much of it yet Downing found himself almost completely absent from the passing game while creating less in the final third than he arguably had in any other game for his new club. Still, when one considers that he’s had more shots on target so far with Liverpool than he averaged for Aston Villa last year, one would expect that over the length of an entire season he could expect a similar—or even slightly improved—goal return, while his chance creation and passing statistics remain generally high, suggesting that any fault in that aspect of his game lies more with those who are failing to convert what he creates in attack than in a dip in form for Downing himself. There’s also little to suggest that, leaving Tottenham out of the equation as Liverpool being down to ten men early heavily skewed all player stats, his play has dipped significantly after a strong start. In fact, Everton aside, it could be argued quite easily that based on what Damien Comolli and Kenny Dalglish brought him in to do—namely, to create chances—two of his strongest outings were in fact against Wolves and Stoke, after opinion on him had begun to sour.

Perhaps Downing hasn’t scored yet, and perhaps it’s understandable that when an attacking player doesn’t score week in and week out some will begin to question him. Still, while stats may not tell the whole story, they can at least be valuable in helping to confirm or deny what people think they have seen in the heat of the moment. And so far at least, Downing’s numbers suggest there isn’t a whole lot to support the negative shift in opinion that has taken place over the past few weeks.

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Category: Premier League, Team News

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Moevawda

He may have scored 7 and assisted 7 last season but that was aston villa,a mid table club while we have much better players so he should be doing much better
Bellamy came on against everton and we saw what he's capable off,hes also a better finisher then downing he should get some starts soon if downing continues this weak form
Jassu

I have noticed that Downing is not giving 100%. Taking no initiatives, escaping I think it is age factor or he performed well on the right wing rather to the left. whatsoever, Now Ballmey is looking more capable and energetic than downing. I think kenny must play him on the right wing and ballmey on the left.
Latortillablanca

i can tell english is not ur first language, so i'll keep it benevolent - but, honestly, how cud it be an age factor with downing when he's 27 yrs old, and if age is the problem, why wud bellamy be the answer when he's 32?
Gary352

Downing is a good player individually. He can carry the ball with control, run fast, and has a good attacking mindset. But the real problem is the rest of the team. There are plenty of players that are not playing to the full potential, why? Because to bring the best out of the team, you have to play as a team. There needs to be more emphasized link up play between certain sets of players, and better passing for players moving off the ball. Downing has played OK, but I have no doubt he can play better. He can be one of those impact players in every game, but his game depends on how well the midfield is playing out. If Adam and Lucas are getting overrun, Downing has to drop more deeper to help out which will not help out his attacking part of his game. Henderson definitely needs to do better on the other wing also, he isn't trying enough to get involved with buildup plays and backs away. Totally different mindset to Downing. Suarez is the engine at the moment keeping everything ticking, but in all honesty how long will it last. Its a good thing this Man United game is coming up, many of the new players will learn first hand how much harder they have to play, and hopefully it will leak into the other games too.
Geoff Twentyman

Being overly critical, one could say that as an old fashioned winger (i.e. relatively one dimensional), defenders only have to concern themsleves with doing a job against him. He's not a Ronaldo or a Messi that will tie you up in knots no matter how good you play.

Who else should we have gone for to offer something different? Maybe Marin or Reus from the Bundesliga? I think we were linked with Marin at one point.

I don't think our tactics necessarily suit Downing either - in a 4-2-2-2 the attacking midifielder needs to occupy both the full backs to stop them from going forward and also give the holding midfielders something to worry about and our Stuart certainly seems happier touching chalk.

Elaborating on this further, I think we're still playing a couple of players out of position to suit the formation; Hendo is clearly not a winger and in this set up, neither is Dirk really so whoever plays there really is just 'doing a job'
Latortillablanca

critiquing either hendo or kuyt as a winger kinda misses the point for me - as you say they're 'doing a job' and that rw position is not asked to play like, say, gareth bale. its more about covering, swapping with suarez and downing, and possession. but hendo's a cm, no doubt about it, its just he runs like a horse so he can play out wide, and he has a decent delivery given time. when we get a trueblood winger - marin is not really a classic winger btw - on the right, i think itll not only open up play for downing, but itll truly open up options for kenny to pick and choose players/tactics for certain games...
Geoff Twentyman

You seem knowledgeable on players - who would you like to see us sign (realistic target) for an option on the right?
Latortillablanca

i really like your ideas of gotze and hazard actually. i just want us to go for a twinkle toes player - the closest we've had to that since i've been a liverpool fan has been harry kewell, and he busted, so... someone young, twinkle-toed and just about to hit his major progression as a pro - hazard is the wet dream basically, maybe someone like Iturbe, that would be dope, and porto's a selling club...
Geoff Twentyman

aaahhh damn Disqus.

and I don't think that 'doing a job' is the level at which we as fans want the team performing.
KC

I'm not concerned. He's a trustworthy hardworking player. Doesn't seem like anything flashy but more often than not, keeps the game going and keeps trying. I don't think he's a liability and I think that as the team continues to gel, we'll see more results.
Geoff Twentyman

Agreed.
Ryan

David Silva. Mother fucker. How I wish I could say you were the one "that got away". Hattrick against Charlie and co. Charlie Adam...leave it in Scotland.
Noel

Like I said on the Twitters, Silva's really stepped up his game since moving to the EPL, and with all the talk of Spain being Barcelona minus Messi, right now he doesn't look half bad for his country taking on the Messi role. In any case, don't know that he would have ever solved the wing issues, but he's certainly one player it hurts to have missed out on.
Geoff Twentyman

Well he may have suited our right hand side with his tendancy to drift inside. It seems as though that's Kenny's intentions for our right wing.
Latortillablanca

cuda played him whereever - What. A. Player. he's such a throwback, creativity personified. had rafa had his druthers after istanbul we cud have very well paired him and villa in the side. tell me that wudntve led to some golden years for the club...
Brian

Hazard. If we had one more seriously creative winger we could be top level. Hendo is not a winger and Kuyt only has a few more good years. With Hazard, even if Suarez isn't on the team sheet there is still a really good spark plug that can make something out of nothing. Plain and simple.
Geoff Twentyman

Hazard, Marin, Gotze.

There's your 3 interchangeable attacking midfielders/forwards with Suarez up top.

Just the small sum of around $70m for those three.
Latortillablanca

not such a fan of marin's, seems kinda lightweight even in the bundesliga, and he strikes me as the sort of lad that'd get all homesick and let it effect his play. the other two, ya, for shizzle.
DJ-Chutfield

Yeah, that's something we're really missing; a Plan B. Suarez is really our only creative firecracker now that AA and RM are gone (I won't use their fullnames cuz... fuck it). I really hope that's sorted in January or we are FUCKED with no Suarez.
Latortillablanca

you're forgetting to include a certain #8, who happens to be our talisman, in your plans. regardless of how well suarez has done in filling those boots since he's come in, he doesn't represent what stevie g represents to this club/squad... man utd wud be a perfect game to remind everyone what we've been missing, btw...
CheekyFellow

Once Stevie G is back in the lineup all these guys will gel in more nicely.
Ryan

Stevie G has been in the lineup, we've just been missing his groin. I've started showing mine more respect due to groingate 2011.
Sandro

By my reckoning he's had one bad match, apart from that I've been pretty impressed with him. Obviously I would've preferred Mata but since we got him I've been content with his performances, his link up with Suarez in particular. The whole argument that he hasn't scored seems to be pretty invalid to me, he was unlucky with a great strike against Sunderland (hard for some to remember since it was more than 5 matches ago...) and then should have opened his account against Wolves. The only question that remains over him is whether he is better on the left or the right, although Kenny moves them around throughout the match so maybe this isn't even a question. Very pleased with his performances, good article.
Guest

Solution: Kuyt plays on the left with Enrique and Downing plays on the right as an inverted winger. This would allow Downing to be more than just a guy who hugs the touchline and whips in crosses when we have an attacking left full back who is already adept at such a thing. Kuyt cuts inside anyway, and plays on the left for the Netherlands. Meanwhile, Downing has shown us what he can do running at defenders on the right against Sunderland.

Of course, this is the sort of solution that would involve Andy being on the bench and Suarez playing as a false nine. But I think this is the problem: we have Downing and Enrique both trying to occupy the same space on the pitch in the current system. Which probably isn't the brightest idea.
Latortillablanca

the idea is those positions, along with the CAM, rotate throughout the game anyway, so i wouldn't be surprised to see exactly what you describe come to fruition as the season progresses and we get to the point where the movement kenny wants is just second nature with people popping up all over the place.
Ryan

Yes. They both had different "styles" of left flanks at their old clubs compared to what they have at Liverpool. While Downing has had a "purple" patch (as FIFA 12 calls it) in recent games, Downing is getting blog posts from Noel about him.

The odds are good in my opinion that Downing will play on the right against Manchester United, unless you forget to tell Dalglish at the next practice about maybe putting Kuyt on the left. We can beat Man U's midfield, especially because Gerrard is looking to start. Man U will want to play it wide, so why not invert the wingers and keep it compact?

Downing vs Manchester United (can't you all tell I youtube everything before I try to make a somewhat intelligent post? Hell I even youtube weird shit when I'm being stupid):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Ryan

Look, cats

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
yahoo-X5CX25AU3ROVDAHOAWU2IX7DHI

Do you mean that he is now showing to be the just about averageplayer that I said he was before we bought him?
Latortillablanca

ya, actually, no, he doesn't mean that. in fact, he empirically states the opposite of that throughout the article...
Ryan

Hey now... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Latortillablanca

downing's the least of my concerns over the short, medium or long term... glad the numbers mostly support his positive play so far - tough to count his first scouse derby against him, y'know? we overpaid for him, but he's quality.

am dying to see (and probably wont see netime soon) what an uber-attacking/interchangeable/creative lineup of him, suarez, bellamy, gerrard and adam could do...
Hezer

Yes he has. I was one of them who never wanted downing here but after his first games he really impressed me a lot and I thought he was signing of the year, but after 3-4 games I noticed downing gets tired after just 60mins and he looks average now to be fair, hes a player with no effect right now dont know whats going on with him, first games he looked very powerful and energetic but now hes well un effective on the pitch, I think kenny should play him on the right wing there he looks a better player and sub. him after 60mins with either bellamy or maxi.
Latortillablanca

um... your problem with downing is, as a pacy left-footed left-winger, he's not very powerful, energetic, or effective and your solution is to throw him on the right, and introduce Maxi? Maxi "The Dynamo" Rodriguez? maxi, the one-paced wonder, that was a slow player even at 25? maxi, the 5'7", 150lbs powerhouse? that maxi? listen, i like what #11 brings to the table as much as the next guy, but downing remains a top-5 winger in this league, and is 4-5 years younger and a thousand times more physically dynamic than maxi...
JPR

Just needs to get a few goals. Concentrate a bit more on correct body position when striking shots. Get over the ball, keep it under the crossbar and on target. The Sunderland screamer should have scored and would have meant 2 points. Actually try to pick someone out on the crosses. Don't just put the ball into a position that should be dangerous only for no one to be there. Pick Carroll, or someone, out. The final ball is not yet good enough.
GerrardsBoxingCoach

I always feel like wingers have to be judged somewhat differently than players operating more centrally. With the exception of maybe a couple of players absolutely at the top of the game who might sometimes play on the wing (I feel a little sick saying it, but C. Ronaldo comes to mind), I think you really have to expect a fairly large number of performances in which that winger is semi-anonymous, both in a bad way (in that he isn't producing standout offensive play) and in a good way (in that he isn't a complete liability, constantly losing possession and abandoning basic defensive duties). I think that tendency toward offensive anonymity is why wingers are subbed so often.
Suarez from the car park...

Yes. When you're looking to change approach play, it's between a winger, midfielder and striker. With our choices we're looking to bring in Bellamy/Kuyt and sometimes Carroll. So Downing is often going to be subbed, though because we have a young Henderson he'll usually be first on the list to be take out.
Red2death

He's hit a cold patch, not necessarily in terms of stats, but in terms of influence on the match. It's that x-factor which is hard to capture in figures - the kind of thing that makes a pass or tackle from Stevie G different from a pass or tackle from Charlie Adam, even though on paper they're exactly the same.

That's ok though. It happens to the best of players. But unfortunately we don't yet have the squad to cope with it effectively, at least not in Downing's position. I'm not too worried. He's proven enough over the years that we know his form will come back sooner or later. We'll just have to ride this one out.
Noel

See, I don't buy that, and there are numbers that speak directly against your gut: Chances created. 9/13 chances he's created for others this year came in two of those matches when you and others claim he was off his game—or not showing that x-factor. The problem there isn't Downing, it's others converting those chances, and if they had then the "Downing is teh awesome!" talk from August and the start of September would have still been going strong.

He had a bad match against Everton, and the entire side had a stinker against Tottenham, but all because he didn't beat three men and crack one off the crossbar doesn't mean he played poorly against Stoke and Wolves—especially when the total goal chances created for himself and teammates were at their highest in those two "bad" games. Combining chances created and shots on target, over 60% of his influential offensive contributions this season coming against those two sides say your gut's making a truthy argument.
Red2death

I get there's a big gut vs stats incongruity here, and especially given the way more well-informed fans are predisposed, as well as the inclinations of our new owners, there is natural preference for the latter. But there is something to be said for the loss of detail when play is converted to numbers. You get the benefit of objectivity, while sacrificing other dimensions of detail because of the need to fit the numerous components of each individual play into quantifiable categories that can be compared across an entire season.

To be honest, I can't say why exactly Downing never got me off my seat these recent few matches. As you've shown, the stats seem to indicate he's doing fine, if not better than before. So either I was previously able to see Downing as a big influence on the game and recently I've just lost that ability, or there are some details that the stats haven't managed to capture. "Stewart Downing was an exciting player in his first few games, and not so much lately", that's a statement I think most who watched would agree with, and that's why his good stats would be surprising - but that also means there's something causing all these fans to see a clear difference, which isn't captured by the numbers.

I'm not one of those who hailed Downing as our saviour (would actually have much preferred Young, but he joined the wrong team), and three matches later I'm not about to say that suddenly Downing is shit. But there's an observable difference. Just because stats and gut don't agree doesn't always mean it's a case of rose-tinted lenses, getting caught up in media hype, fickle fans, etc.

I'd like to think many Liverpool fans are well-informed. Less fickle than your average supporter, and own dogs which are infinitely smarter and better looking than your average Manc. Still we get some knee-jerk reactions, and I know what you're getting at. But I do believe stats and gut can co-exist, and in cases where they each paint a different picture, it doesn't necessarily mean that one picture is right and the other wrong. In the moment, the eye can see a lot more than stats can, and stats in turn can illuminate longitudinal facts that we find hard to process because of finite memory, emotional involvement, external influences, etc.

In short, don't dis my gut! =)
Latortillablanca

did anyone hail downing as our savior?

downing's doing fine, we're just struggling a little bit trying to integrate the wit and creativity of suarez's movement, with downing's flank play, with adam's vision, with andy's aerial advantage... that's a lot of different types of games thrown together over what is still a short period of time. we got steven coming back, and i'm hoping he's the missing link between all that, but even then, as a team we still haven't put it all together for a full 90 yet. sub standard play from a fans' perspective can often just be one or two little things that need to click in order to bring a coaches' masterplan together.

itd be fascinating to sit with clarkey and the king and hear what they want the scheme to look like at 100% with this collection of players...
Ryan

The epitome of our bad finishing was in the Stoke game, and that's when Downing had the most crosses. Any correlation?
Suarez from the car park...

not taking our chances. full stop.
Pritz597

Suarez is given his free role which means he naturally jets off to the left, this is nullifying downings position, it was all to obvious in the wolves game. Which means downing has to move on the inside. The lad thrives on his speed and getting the crosses in from the by line, he cannot do any of that as he's left on the inside.
This is the problem. If Suarez jets on the right then he could interchange with kuyt, which would be more natural.
Latortillablanca

i agree that suarez naturally looks for that cut-in-off-the-left movement, which is why i think a classic 4-3-3 suits us to the ground. suarez left, downing right, either kuyt or carroll up top, with a mid three of gerrard, adam and lucas. we've got the fullbacks to cover those flanks, and the front three plus stevie shud create an opera of movement...
Ryan

Perhaps other Liverpool players are affecting Downing's game as well. Charlie Adam drifted off to the left during the Everton game, kinda getting in the way of the area where Downing does his business. From what I know, Warnock and Young aren't the most attacking fullbacks in the EPL, so having to share the flank with Enrique's dynamics could hamper him, throwing off balance a little with the extra body.

Also, Liverpool seriously haven't had a legitimate winger in like 5 years, so basically before anyone was here besides Carragher and Gerrard. Maxi, Benayoun, and Kuyt have tried their best to get some chalk, but we haven't realistically been able to compete with the wing play of someone like Manchester United. Surely we've naturally adapted in some way or another to not really consider crosses being whipped into the area on a consistent basis, leaving everyone but Carroll saying "wtf kinda shot was that oh ya he passes like that". Maybe things haven't been that drastic around here with Kuyt catching on quickly to the whole "crossing, or Xing, paraboling, passing awkwardly or whatever those islander people do with the ball, its weird", thing.
Purify_the_body

Stewart Downing, "least disastrous of all the British signings not named Bellamy."
Ryan

Hm. Maybe subbing him out for Rodriguez at the end of games wouldn't hurt keep the pressure. I'm sure Maxi would be at his best even if it was just for 20 minutes, and if he has good success in those few minutes, it'll be good for Liverpool, and it will also give us something to compare to Downing. The only game Downing hasn't played in was the league cup game, right? and the new addition to that lineup, Bellamy, was one of our best players. Maybe more time from Bellamy AND Rodriguez would give us something to whine about. It's hard to dog Downing when no one else has really played significant minutes on the left flank, even more so when his numbers don't ask for any intervention.
Suarez from the car park...

Is he not as 'cultured' as others?
Ryan

I'm not exactly sure how much time he's spent in the East Indies. Rumor has it that he knows 4 languages.

Oh, what did you mean by cultured?

You mean like cheese?
Suarez from the car park...

Did you see the skills vid - Martin Skyrtel sounded more like a North East man than Downing did!