The Liverpool Offside: FanPosts

Off topic thread: Talk about whatever floats your fancy

2013-05-14T19:56:54Z

We've had them on TV, film, books, and other subjects before. With the season winding down, and transfer season already getting silly, we can use this as a distraction, and to talk about less LFC related stuff with others in the community.

If you want to talk about TV, film, or book subjects, it's probably best to be respectful of those who haven't read, or watched as much yet, but plan to in the future, so the spoiler box can be used to protect the innocents.

Begin below.

I don't want to talk about it, but....

2013-05-10T15:33:14Z

Conn's piece is pretty f'ing upsetting and at odds w/ just about everything Shankly and LFC stood for.

B/c of work, I haven't been much in the comments recently, so perhaps this subject already has been aired.

Not going to change whether I follow the club, but definitely leaves a sour f'ing taste in your mouth. It's hard to believe that the club and council couldn't've handled all of this quite differently and still made a boatload of cash.

F-ck capitalism.

That is all.

YNWA.

Conn's piece is pretty f'ing upsetting and at odds w/ just about everything Shankly and LFC stood for.

B/c of work, I haven't been much in the comments recently, so perhaps this subject already has been aired.

F-ck capitalism.

That is all.

YNWA.

Predictions for 2013/2014

2013-05-06T15:33:27Z

via dailypost.com.ng

"An early fun stab at next season's finishing positions: 1. Man Utd 2. Chelsea 3. Liverpool 4. Man City 5. Arsenal 6. Spurs 7. Everton" – Michael Owen

Think it's too early for predictions about next year's final standings when this year's finishes aren't even set? I would agree with you. Michael Owen, however, does not. On his Twitter page, he made this bold prediction for the top seven teams in 2014. Of course, this holds no weight on next season, or really anything. The soon-to-retire player who has sported the Liverbird in the past (and unfortunately, the Red Devil) merely tweeted his thoughts. And that's all they are: thoughts.

But let's ignore the fact that this is just a man tweeting his speculation for a moment and look to the obvious. Liverpool in third place?! If you read the replies to his tweet, you can see many others thinking the same thing. Now, I'd love to see the club in third next year; it's been too long since we've competed in the Champions League. But considering the team has placed 7th, 6th, 8th, the last three years, and are on pace for 7th this year, this is a very courageous speculation.

Now, this got me thinking about next season. I would never claim to know what will happen next year, nor do I care to guess. But I would like to think, how can Liverpool make that 3rd place prediction plausible? Since the January transfer window brought us Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho, Liverpool have been much improved from the beginning of the season. This can be attributed to a number of factors, including the new signings, adaptation to coach Brendan Rodgers' system, improved chemistry between the players, and the recent form of players like Jordan Henderson. Nonetheless, Liverpool still struggles with consistency, epitomized by the 6-0 result at Newcastle and the scoreless draw in the Merseyside derby. It's fairly obvious that if the team could more consistently play at the level they did against Newcastle, Liverpool would certainly be in the top four conversation. But what is the fix to the team's ebbs and flows in form? I can't say.

What I can say is that to return to the club's past glory, management will have to get some new talent in the squad. With Andy Carroll all but sold to West Ham, as well as the potential for a few loans for the next year, Liverpool will have some money coming their way that could fill in some of our missing pieces. Stewart Downing has been markedly better than last year, but he is not the right winger of the future. While Raheem Sterling and Suso may blossom into great players at the position, they are not yet fit to fill in. The purchase of a solid starting right winger is crucial to the club's performance next season.

That sentiment is shared by most Liverpool fans, so it's an obvious thing to say, but it cannot go unaddressed. Now I'll attempt to enter the murkier waters of our back line. When Carragher leaves, who will replace him? Will Martin Skrtel return to his earlier form, or will he be the Skrtel we painfully watched this season? Are Martin Kelly and Sebastian Coates suitable backups, or even starters? I can't answer those questions, but I can offer an opinion. Martin Kelly is worth keeping around: as a natural right back, he may be needed to step up if Glen Johnson continues on this downward spiral. I am unsure about his long-term capabilities as a centre back, but his versatility makes him worth testing. Sebastian Coates, if he is given time to develop, may be as good as Skrtel in his old days; if this happens, he is a worthwhile long-term investment. But I haven't seen enough of him to cast judgment: Rodgers simply has not played him. If we have money to invest here, I think the club should go for a player with starting ability. Not potential: we have that with Kelly and Coates. Proven ability.

Then and only then do I think we can enter the backup conversation. Lucas is our only defensive midfielder, and the team suffered without him during his injury. This is not a place to splurge, but a backup should be added. This should come cheap, perhaps from the academy. And then, if we're dreaming or swimming in cash, another striker could be put into the rotation. Perhaps this would help us keep the good Sturridge, the stud, and less frequently see Sturridge, the clown we saw against Everton.

The club will not be able to buy everyone the fans want. And there are countless opinions on who is worthy of a purchase during the offseason. But if Rodgers and management are wise during this offseason and provide some good additions, for the first time in a few years I could realistically see a top four finish for the Reds.

Agree? Think I'm deludedly optimistic? I'd love to hear from you either way. Thanks for reading my first post!

via dailypost.com.ng

"An early fun stab at next season's finishing positions: 1. Man Utd 2. Chelsea 3. Liverpool 4. Man City 5. Arsenal 6. Spurs 7. Everton" – Michael Owen

Agree? Think I'm deludedly optimistic? I'd love to hear from you either way. Thanks for reading my first post!

Summer Transfer Activity - deep lying centre midfield

2013-05-01T01:25:44Z

Following on from the Right Wing/Forward post which really centered around players who might be a good fit at the right price, I suspect that the deep lying centre midfield post might see a much greater level of debate due to the number of opinions of the varying deep lying roles and styles of player that we as a collective may feel would be best suited to our needs. Do you sit in the camp that wants an out and out destroyer, Mascherano style? Who would prefer to see us bring in a Busquets style DM who drops in between the CB’s when the full backs push on? I’m sure many would like to see the return of a deep lying playmaker in the image of a certain Alonso who graced the pitch at Anfield not too many moons ago, or perhaps you see a gap in our squad for a Yaya Toure style versatile midfielder who can comfortably operate in a deep defensive position, but also has the all round game to play higher up the pitch? In line with those various roles, here's a list of realistic (I use the term based on cost versus potential availability) deep lying centre midfielders who we can evaluate and discuss the merits of considering the up coming transfer window.

Poll

Who gets your vote?

L Bender

5 votes

Witsel

0 votes

Illaramendi

0 votes

Banega

2 votes

Capoue

1 votes

Diame

18 votes

Fofana

0 votes

Fer

0 votes

Strootman

5 votes

Paulinho

0 votes

Poli

1 votes

Clasie

1 votes

Xhaka

0 votes

Kovatic

2 votes

Other

6 votes

41 votes | Poll has closed

Graphical Representation of Location Data

2013-04-29T15:24:33Z

I was reading through the ¨Where's everybody from¨ topic (it's closed now so I had to put this in a new one) and there were calls for someone to do a visual representation. I found the data pretty interesting, so fooled around on Adobe Illustrator and shaded in some (very, these are by no means beautiful) rough maps (the templates of which were easy enough to find).

Notes-

- The darker the shading the more people.

- I'm very sure a lot of people were missed out, this is just data collected from that fanpost and what user names that I remembered. That's why the percentages are just a rough estimate.

- If people mentioned more than one country, I just used discretion (normally where you are now, unless it was just a very temporary thing like school, in which case I used origin)

- I tried to shade in complete countries (including island territories) which I now realize makes it look weird. As far as I know nobody in Greenland gives two shits about Liverpool.

- Estonia surprised me the most. (Not strange in a bad way, just very cool and kind of unexpected). It also has islands?

- I'm surprised there aren't more Latin Americans/Caribbean/South American users. I cheated slightly and put 'blanca as Chilean so we could have six continents, and I could have done the same for myself and Argentina but either way you'd think it would be more. Lots of people speak English and the Premiership is shown all the time.

- I couldn't decide where I should go so I left myself off entirely.

- All in all this was more diverse than I expected, you can't really tell from the threads unless someone brings up their nationality because everyone speaks excellent English. I took way more interest in this than I should have.

- There are too many Australians. It doesn't make sense.

- This is a rough breakdown of US Locations using the same principles as above. Blues and greens means nobody as far as I know, shades of red/pink mean some presence.

If anybody did this already and I just don't know then whoops.

Notes-

- The darker the shading the more people.

- I'm very sure a lot of people were missed out, this is just data collected from that fanpost and what user names that I remembered. That's why the percentages are just a rough estimate.

- If people mentioned more than one country, I just used discretion (normally where you are now, unless it was just a very temporary thing like school, in which case I used origin)

- I tried to shade in complete countries (including island territories) which I now realize makes it look weird. As far as I know nobody in Greenland gives two shits about Liverpool.

- Estonia surprised me the most. (Not strange in a bad way, just very cool and kind of unexpected). It also has islands?

- I couldn't decide where I should go so I left myself off entirely.

- There are too many Australians. It doesn't make sense.

- This is a rough breakdown of US Locations using the same principles as above. Blues and greens means nobody as far as I know, shades of red/pink mean some presence.

If anybody did this already and I just don't know then whoops.

Summer Transfer activity - Right Wing/Forward

2013-04-29T02:52:27Z

Transfer gossip provides some light entertainment each window, but I thought it would be enjoyable to pick over the relevant qualities of a few players we could conceivably go in for this summer. I though we could start with considering an upgrade (unfair?), or alernative skillset to our current right winger, Stewart Downing. In line with Rodgers apparent preference for inverted wingers, here's a list of realistic (I use the term based on cost versus potential availability) left footed players with a wide forward skillset who we can evaluate and discuss the merits of considering the up coming transfer window.

Poll

Who do you think is the most likely player from the following who we could sign up this summer?

Andre Ayew

2 votes

Hatem Ben Arfa

7 votes

Erik Lamela

6 votes

Hulk

1 votes

James Rodriguez

6 votes

Andriy Yarmolenko

1 votes

Douglas Costa

1 votes

Other

5 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

Look! Red Pandas!

2013-04-24T16:00:00Z

Luis Suarez has received a ten match ban for ~~putting Branislav Ivanovic out for a year with a leg breaking tackle~~ failing to break the skin in a moment of ridiculous stupidity that saw him bite the Serb's forearm. This seems somewhat excessive. This also seems fairly unsurprising when you get right down to it.

But you don't want to talk about Luis Suarez and the FA and whether it would be smart to offload Suarez given his history of giving the club headaches or foolish to do so given his obvious talent and that his value will dip sharply for at least the next few months.

That's not why you come to the Liverpool Offside. You come to the Liverpool Offside for red pandas. Because nothing is more awesome than a red panda. So. Red pandas.

TV and films. Forgetting too.

2013-04-23T01:20:58Z

There are lots of comments every week related to films and TV shows so why not have a place to discuss what we've been watching at home or at the cinema? Fowler knows we need the distraction right now.

I'm currently watching Game of Thrones, Mad Men, Vikings, Real Husbands of Hollywood, and DaVinci's Demons at the moment. The last films I watched were Place Beyond the Pines at the cinema and LEGO Batman the Movie as a buccaneer. Both films were fantastic in their own way.

Not sure how we're going to manage spoilers (maybe use spoilers or signpost them?) for those who might be a week behind, a season behind or have a particular series on their to watch list (The Wire, Justified, Treme, some of Deadwood for me) but we'll find a way.

I don't want to die a little but I'd like to say goodbye to Spartacus and Gannicus in particular as Spartacus has ended.

A Case for the Defense

2013-04-18T23:48:19Z

It is often said that LFC's defensive personnel has underwhelmed this season. I believe that assessment is in error.

In honor of Rafa's return to Anfield, let's start with some facts (stats are BPL only):

1. This season LFC has the second-most clean sheets in the league (to Man City) and the second-highest clean sheet percentage. Unlike Man City, LFC typically does not play with two out-and-out defensive midfielders in a 4-2-3-1. This despite the fact that their first-choice keeper has missed 7 games and been wonky in others. This despite the fact that injuries and lack of depth have forced Downing, Henderson, and Wisdom into the back line, and Joe Allen to play out of position for much of the first half of the season.

2. However, LFC has conceded only the fifth-fewest goals in the league. This indicates that when they give them up they give them up in bunches.

3. LFC is much better in terms of goal prevention at home than away: they have conceded 0.88 goals/game at home, and 1.53 goals/game on the road. This suggests that they have major problems with goal prevention away from home.

4. LFC has lost 14 points from games in which they held a lead (4 draws, 2 losses), seventh in the league. This suggests that LFC has a problem consolidating wins.

5. LFC has taken maximum points in only 3 of 15 games against top-half competition (6 draws, 6 losses), which is 11th in the league (8th on a ppg basis), but is 5th in the league in terms of points against bottom-half opposition.

So what can we take away from these? I believe it is Rodgers' strategy more than personnel.

Rodgers gives the team an attacking intent no matter the context. He plays with one holding midfielder -- who has either been injured or recovering from injury most of the year -- and three forwards (sometimes four). His fullbacks are more like wingbacks, and he plays a quite high defensive line. His strategy is to defend by attacking: keep possession, keep the opposition pinned deep and on their heels, pressure the ball as soon as it conceded. If they never have the ball in your half they'll never score. Play wide in attack, but get compact on defense and press hard.

When it works this strategy really works: LFC keeps a clean sheet and looks great doing it. This strategy is more likely to work at home and against weaker opposition, when opposing teams will be more likely to field a defensive lineup. And LFC dominates in those situations (at least on defense... sometimes they still have trouble scoring). Against stronger teams and more offense-minded teams, however, it leaves LFC open to goals on the counter-attack. Sometimes this will look like a defensive blunder -- somebody failing to cover someone on the break -- but whenever you ask defenders to go one-on-one with attackers on a regular basis you are asking for trouble. Whenever you ask defenders to mark attackers who are operating in space you are going to get burned eventually. Whenever you ask the last man to play with the ball in the middle of the park you are increasing the odds of a costly error that culminates in a goal.

But is this actually a blunder, or is it a calculated risk? I contend that it is the latter. It is part of the overall strategy, which is to be a team which constantly attacks, constantly creates chances, and turns those chances into goals. When your fullbacks say to the media that they think of themselves as strikers in Rodgers' system, then it is clear that the emphasis is not on goal-prevention. The gamble was even more severe earlier in the season, when at least one (and usually several) of Lucas, Johnson, and Enrique were not in the lineup through injury or disfavor.

This is probably the correct strategy -- you don't win the league by preventing goals -- but it leads to feast-or-famine: either LFC wins the game handily, or they drop points. 9 of LFC's 13 wins have come with clean sheets. The other four have been blowouts -- 5-2 v. Norwich -- or they've benefited from an own goal or a late penalty. They aren't grinding out many 2-1 or 3-2 victories; they are suffering from a ton of 1-1 and 2-2 draws.

When LFC encounters teams that can play well on the counter, or absorb pressure without conceding, LFC struggles to secure full points. LFC is a decent attacking team -- fifth in the league -- but they are not an elite attacking team. This strategy requires them to be an elite attacking team, since they are throwing nearly everything into the attack. They should average 2 goals per game with this style of play, and they average 1.7.

So why have things looked better since Carra's been back? Simple. They've abandoned one element of the system: a high line. Carra can't play a pressing style far up the pitch, so the team has adjusted. (At least by perception; I don't know of a stat for this.) But this doesn't mean that Carra is any better than Skrtel, or that Skrtel has to go. It simply means that when your defensive strategy becomes more risk-averse you are more likely to not suffer as many defensive lapses. Early in the season, Skrtel was being forced into playing in a high line that he clearly was not comfortable with; lately Carra hasn't been asked to do the same thing, so he's looked better.

Moving forward, and looking to next year, Rodgers will need to decide what strategy to take. If LFC stays dedicated to an attack-minded strategy they need to score more: this year, they're scoring half a goal less per game than Man United (and are, in fact, below all of the top four). They are not an elite attacking team, but they are playing a strategy designed for an elite attacking team. They're going to need to get a CB that can hold a high line with Agger and press better. If they are going to try to more consistently limit the other team's goals, then they'll need to adopt formations and/or positioning that will accommodate that (all of the top-4 are better at that too). RIght now they're kind of in between; they're good enough to dominate below-average teams, but not good enough to boss around above-average teams.

It is often said that LFC's defensive personnel has underwhelmed this season. I believe that assessment is in error.

In honor of Rafa's return to Anfield, let's start with some facts (stats are BPL only):

2. However, LFC has conceded only the fifth-fewest goals in the league. This indicates that when they give them up they give them up in bunches.

4. LFC has lost 14 points from games in which they held a lead (4 draws, 2 losses), seventh in the league. This suggests that LFC has a problem consolidating wins.

So what can we take away from these? I believe it is Rodgers' strategy more than personnel.

Liverpool v West Ham: In-Game TSR, Shots Frequency and Shot Location

2013-04-07T21:51:16Z

Originally published here

Liverpool v West Ham, nil nil, frustration and, ultimately, a disappointing result given Liverpool’s improving home form where they have recorded 5wins in the last 6 games.

We know the basic stat numbers from the game but lets look a little more closely at those numbers for there is good detail hidden within those basic numbers.

In-Game TSR

This is how the Total Shots battle between the clubs played out. TSR is the share of the total shot count that each team records. I have then mapped that over the 95 minutes and the results are shown above.

Liverpool were the dominant early shots team, the club who was showing more recorded attacking ambition. The gap between the two teams closed to a 50/50 share just before half time, but it didn’t take long for normal service to resume.

It’s pretty amazing how consistent the gap between the two teams’ TSR was in the second half. For a full 45 minutes Liverpool hovered around 60%share of the TSR and this points to Liverpool’s dominance, solely in terms of shots, being pretty consistent.

Shots Frequency

This graph shows us each teams shots frequency by taking shots for and then dividing them by time on the clock.

The chart above shows Liverpool’s shots per minute increase slowly but steadily in the last 20 minutes, which indicates quite obviously that Liverpool weren’t satisfied with their game position. This is normal for a home team especially against a West Ham team with some of the worst away number in the Premier League this year.

West Ham’s line shows a couple of spikes in the last 20 minutes which indicate their rare shot attempts, but West Ham didn’t show any decrease in their shot frequency as time ticked down, as would of befitted a team who were completely content with the single away point.

Now, we know things about shot quality already: Liverpool 8 SoT to West Ham’s 1 so there is no real need to show each teams shots breakdown. Instead I want to look at the pitch location of Liverpool’s shot attempts.

Location Of Liverpool’s Total Shots Attempts

This doesn’t need too much explanation. Liverpool may have won the total shots battle handily but look at the pitch location from which Liverpool took their shots from. 12 of Liverpool’s 20 shots attempts came from outside the box.

Now, this high number (12/20) is a combination of West Ham’s defensive shape forcing Liverpool to shoot from low quality areas, a lack of shot selection discipline from Liverpool. But overall, maybe it’s just about patience. West ham were set up to be stubborn and prevent Liverpool from creating chances or shooting from high quality zones of the pitch, namely center of the box.

West Ham succeeded in executing their game plan, Liverpool took shots from poor areas and although the away keeper was tested frequently, very few of those shots on target were taken from the ‘red zone’ or the center of the 18 yard box.

In fact, it was West Ham who took a higher number of shots from inside the box and ‘red zone’. Maybe Allardyce may have had a point when he said it was West Ham who had the better chances.

Location Of West Ham’s Shot Attempts

Five shots from the center of the 18 yard box and just 3 from outside the box. It’s pretty clear who, on paper, created the higher quality of shooting chances in terms of the location of where those shots were taken from.

LFC Summer Tour 2013

2013-04-02T13:12:52Z

IT'S CONFIRMED :DDDDD LFC ARE GOING TO AUSTRALIA, THAILAND AND INDONESIA!!

WHOSE GOING??? I'm so there for Melbourne I'm turning square.

Adrenaline is actually pumping through me right now I'm shaking!! :DDD

I might be able to meet my LFC idols? This is like half of my dream coming true. I think it might be time to invest in some kits :D

Okay now I'm scared I won't be able to get tickets...I shall be up before 9am next Thursday and first in to buy those tickets. OMGOMGOMG.

So pumped.

IT'S CONFIRMED :DDDDD LFC ARE GOING TO AUSTRALIA, THAILAND AND INDONESIA!!

WHOSE GOING??? I'm so there for Melbourne I'm turning square.

Adrenaline is actually pumping through me right now I'm shaking!! :DDD

I might be able to meet my LFC idols? This is like half of my dream coming true. I think it might be time to invest in some kits :D

Okay now I'm scared I won't be able to get tickets...I shall be up before 9am next Thursday and first in to buy those tickets. OMGOMGOMG.

So pumped.

Farewell, Michael Owen

2013-03-21T20:24:44Z

Michael Owen is set to hang up his boots at the end of this season. The one-time teenage phenom has had an illustrious career plagued by injuries. The product of the Liverpool academy, Owen was actually the joint top scorer in his first season in the Premier League with 18 goals. He then repeated that feat the following season and his name stands in the history books as the second highest goals scored by a teenager in the Premier League. Fellow Liverpool legend, Robbie Fowler is the only player to have scored more as a teenager with 23 goals. Owen was Liverpool’s top scorer for eight straight seasons (1997-2004). From the moment he made his debut, to the moment he left the club, Owen led his team in scoring every single year. In 264 appearances for Liverpool, Michael Owen found the back of the net 138 times and notched 7 assists in that time as well.* He became the youngest ever player to reach 100 goals in the Premier League. In 2001, the year Liverpool won the FA Cup, UEFA Cup and League Cup, Owen received the Ballon d’Or and become just the fourth English national to win the award and first since Kevin Keegan in 1979. He was also the first Liverpool player to ever receive the award, and still is to this day.

In 2004, Owen was sold to Real Madrid where he did not find the same success he previously had at Liverpool. His tenure at Madrid did not last long at all, he only made 41 appearances for them and scored 15 goals*. After one season in Madrid, Owen was sold to Newcastle where his injuries really started to take over and we began to see the demise of one of the most clinical strikers of his generation. In his first season with Newcastle he only managed to play 11 games but he scored 7 goals in that short period. Injuries took over and he was sidelined for about 18 months. Upon his return to the field, he was never the same again. His final two seasons at Newcastle he played a total of 57 games and scored 19 goals. Very un-Owen-like as we were used to him scoring about 19 goals per season. In his final year at Newcastle, they were relegated at the end of the season and Owen moved to Manchester United on a free transfer.

At United he was never a major cog in Sir Alex Ferguson’s plans as Owen was now very fragile and was not able to play very much, when he did, it would usually end up in another injury. He managed a total of 52 appearances for United scoring 17 goals*. Now plying his trade at Stoke City, Owen is again spending the majority of his time on the bench. A one-time phenom destroyed by injuries and robbed from becoming an even greater player than what his career will show.

Farewell, Michael. It was a pleasure watching you play in your prime.

*stat from transfermarkt.co.uk

Farewell, Michael. It was a pleasure watching you play in your prime.

*stat from transfermarkt.co.uk

Stewart Downing Twitter Q&A Goes Poorly

2013-03-12T18:53:00Z

I didn't see this article posted at all, which is hard to believe given the number of Downing haters. Apparently Liverpool decided to do a Twitter Q&A with Stewart Downing using the hashtag #askdowning. Spoiler alert: it could have gone better.

Here's the original tweet from the official account:

We'll soon be interviewing Stewart Downing & you can ask the questions. Tweet your thought-provoking questions with the #askdowning hashtag.
— Liverpool FC(@LFC) March 7, 2013

Questions included:

If you were a footballer, what would your preferred position be?

Ouch. Link here

Or you could just go to Twitter and do a search for #askdowning.

Here's the original tweet from the official account:

We'll soon be interviewing Stewart Downing & you can ask the questions. Tweet your thought-provoking questions with the #askdowning hashtag.
— Liverpool FC(@LFC) March 7, 2013

Questions included:

If you were a footballer, what would your preferred position be?

Ouch. Link here

Or you could just go to Twitter and do a search for #askdowning.

Where will Liverpool place? You decide! (sort of)

2013-03-10T21:58:13Z

I've done a couple of posts on the results of my model that simulates out the rest of the Premier League season, most notably here (you'll find some stuff on the methodology there) and here (some more in-depth methodology stuff there).

With the Spurs game behind us and the rest of the season being down to a somewhat manageable 9 games I've decided to crank the dial up to 11 and simulate the rest of the season 250,000 instead of 5,000 times to allow users to build their own scenario generator.

You can download an Excel spreadsheet with the data here (Warning: Hitting "download" on that page will trigger a 35 MB download-- 250,000 simulations are a lot! That also means that the spreadsheet can not be opened in Office 2003 or earlier, which support only 64,000 lines.)

Following is a description of how to use the sheet, but if you've ever been in an Excel sheet it should be fairly self-explanatory.

The only cells you really need to touch are in the tab "results", G6:O6 (prepopulated with stars). That's where you select from a drop-down menu what you think the results of Liverpool's remaining games will be-- either a Liverpool win, a win for the other team, a draw-- or you can just leave the cell as a star, which leaves the outcome of the game up to random chance-- the odds that the model uses for that can be seen by hovering with the mouse over cells G4:O4.

I have protected the rest of the sheet to keep people who aren't too savvy with Excel to inadvertently hit some buttons that make the spreadsheet not work, but you can unprotect it with the password "liverpool".

Once you have selected the outcomes you think most likely, the odds of Liverpool placing 2nd to 12th place (a better and worse finish weren't found in the 250,000 simulations) are displayed in cells G9:H20 and tallied up into "Champions League straight (2nd+3rd place), CL qualification (4th), Europa League (5th) in cells J9:M12

Importantly, cell A12 shows how often your exact scenario came up in the 250,000 runs. If you picked a really weird scenario that happened less than 100 or so times, the results will obviously not be particularly statistically significant. Take with a grain of salt and consider leaving another game up to chance.

Lastly, there's a problem in a dozen or so of the 250,000 runs that will in some weird edge cases make the chance of placing in some spot a negative, very small number. I'm not sure what's going on there, but those cases are functionally zero. It doesn't matter, affecting literally just one of 20,000 runs. If I'd thought about that before uploading the spreadsheet to Google Drive, I'd have built in a function that floors values at 0%, but it's been uploading for half an hour and I don't want to repeat that.

Let me know what you think and what you come up with.

Below is a screenshot of the sheet, to visualize what I'm talking about.

Have fun!

Following is a description of how to use the sheet, but if you've ever been in an Excel sheet it should be fairly self-explanatory.

Let me know what you think and what you come up with.

Below is a screenshot of the sheet, to visualize what I'm talking about.

Have fun!

YNKA: You'll Never Knit Alone

2013-03-01T03:40:59Z

This post is obviously a little outside the usual content posted on this site, but I thought I would share this project with those of you who have an inner craft nerd just dying to get out.

I am a bit of an avid crafter and felt compelled to express my love for the club the only way I knew how: I knit an LFC-themed sweater. As you do. I took an existing pattern and altered all the motifs to reflect many of the common references to the club's history and identity.

All of the grey/white motifs are based on Turkish knitting patterns because of the Miracle of Istanbul.

If you're not yet aware, we won it five times. L4 is Anfield's postal code.

"Poor Scouser Tommy" is my absolute favourite Kop song, so it was a given that I'd have to find a way to integrate it somewhere into the design.

Because YNWA had to be included somewhere.

Besides the fact that it's super warm and extra cozy, I had a lot of fun making this. If anyone else likes to knit and/or has a very generous grandmother, you can find the Liver bird chart here. Thanks for looking!

This post is obviously a little outside the usual content posted on this site, but I thought I would share this project with those of you who have an inner craft nerd just dying to get out.

All of the grey/white motifs are based on Turkish knitting patterns because of the Miracle of Istanbul.

If you're not yet aware, we won it five times. L4 is Anfield's postal code.

"Poor Scouser Tommy" is my absolute favourite Kop song, so it was a given that I'd have to find a way to integrate it somewhere into the design.

Because YNWA had to be included somewhere.

The Liverpool Offside: FanPosts

Off topic thread: Talk about whatever floats your fancy

I don't want to talk about it, but....

Predictions for 2013/2014

Summer Transfer Activity - deep lying centre midfield

Who gets your vote?

L Bender

Witsel

Illaramendi

Banega

Capoue

Diame

Fofana

Fer

Strootman

Paulinho

Poli

Clasie

Xhaka

Kovatic

Other

Graphical Representation of Location Data

Summer Transfer activity - Right Wing/Forward

Who do you think is the most likely player from the following who we could sign up this summer?

Andre Ayew

Hatem Ben Arfa

Erik Lamela

Hulk

James Rodriguez

Andriy Yarmolenko

Douglas Costa

Other

Look! Red Pandas!

TV and films. Forgetting too.

A Case for the Defense

Liverpool v West Ham: In-Game TSR, Shots Frequency and Shot Location

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LFC Summer Tour 2013

Farewell, Michael Owen

Stewart Downing Twitter Q&A Goes Poorly

Where will Liverpool place? You decide! (sort of)

YNKA: You'll Never Knit Alone